Jiangsu Changfa Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

002413 Stock   4.80  0.02  0.41%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jiangsu Changfa Refrigeration on the next trading day is expected to be 4.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.10. Jiangsu Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Jiangsu Changfa stock prices and determine the direction of Jiangsu Changfa Refrigeration's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Jiangsu Changfa's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Jiangsu Changfa's Other Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Inventory is expected to grow to about 1 B, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 3.4 B.
Triple exponential smoothing for Jiangsu Changfa - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Jiangsu Changfa prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Jiangsu Changfa price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Jiangsu Changfa Refr.

Jiangsu Changfa Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jiangsu Changfa Refrigeration on the next trading day is expected to be 4.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jiangsu Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jiangsu Changfa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jiangsu Changfa Stock Forecast Pattern

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Jiangsu Changfa Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jiangsu Changfa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jiangsu Changfa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.25 and 8.39, respectively. We have considered Jiangsu Changfa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.80
4.82
Expected Value
8.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jiangsu Changfa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jiangsu Changfa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0276
MADMean absolute deviation0.1204
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0273
SAESum of the absolute errors7.1041
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Jiangsu Changfa observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Jiangsu Changfa Refrigeration observations.

Predictive Modules for Jiangsu Changfa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jiangsu Changfa Refr. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.234.808.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.014.588.15
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.030.030.03
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Jiangsu Changfa

For every potential investor in Jiangsu, whether a beginner or expert, Jiangsu Changfa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jiangsu Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jiangsu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jiangsu Changfa's price trends.

Jiangsu Changfa Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jiangsu Changfa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jiangsu Changfa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jiangsu Changfa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jiangsu Changfa Refr Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jiangsu Changfa's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jiangsu Changfa's current price.

Jiangsu Changfa Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jiangsu Changfa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jiangsu Changfa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jiangsu Changfa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jiangsu Changfa Refrigeration entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jiangsu Changfa Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jiangsu Changfa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jiangsu Changfa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jiangsu stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Jiangsu Stock

Jiangsu Changfa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jiangsu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jiangsu with respect to the benefits of owning Jiangsu Changfa security.