Sungdo Engineering Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

037350 Stock   4,420  20.00  0.45%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sungdo Engineering Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 4,409 with a mean absolute deviation of 93.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,490. Sungdo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Sungdo Engineering stock prices and determine the direction of Sungdo Engineering Construction's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sungdo Engineering's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Sungdo Engineering - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Sungdo Engineering prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Sungdo Engineering price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Sungdo Engineering.

Sungdo Engineering Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sungdo Engineering Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 4,409 with a mean absolute deviation of 93.06, mean absolute percentage error of 15,368, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,490.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sungdo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sungdo Engineering's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sungdo Engineering Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Sungdo EngineeringSungdo Engineering Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Sungdo Engineering Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sungdo Engineering's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sungdo Engineering's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4,406 and 4,411, respectively. We have considered Sungdo Engineering's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4,420
4,409
Expected Value
4,411
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sungdo Engineering stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sungdo Engineering stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 18.8505
MADMean absolute deviation93.0577
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0191
SAESum of the absolute errors5490.4046
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Sungdo Engineering observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Sungdo Engineering Construction observations.

Predictive Modules for Sungdo Engineering

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sungdo Engineering. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4,4184,4204,422
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3,8933,8964,862
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
4,2104,5154,821
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sungdo Engineering. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sungdo Engineering's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sungdo Engineering's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Sungdo Engineering.

Other Forecasting Options for Sungdo Engineering

For every potential investor in Sungdo, whether a beginner or expert, Sungdo Engineering's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sungdo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sungdo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sungdo Engineering's price trends.

Sungdo Engineering Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sungdo Engineering stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sungdo Engineering could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sungdo Engineering by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sungdo Engineering Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sungdo Engineering's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sungdo Engineering's current price.

Sungdo Engineering Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sungdo Engineering stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sungdo Engineering shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sungdo Engineering stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sungdo Engineering Construction entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sungdo Engineering Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sungdo Engineering's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sungdo Engineering's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sungdo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Sungdo Engineering

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Sungdo Engineering position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Sungdo Engineering will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Sungdo Stock

  0.82011070 LG InnotekPairCorr
  0.67004170 ShinsegaePairCorr
  0.8097950 CJ CheiljedangPairCorr
  0.76005380 Hyundai MotorPairCorr

Moving against Sungdo Stock

  0.81010130 Korea ZincPairCorr
  0.55086280 Hyundai GlovisPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Sungdo Engineering could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Sungdo Engineering when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Sungdo Engineering - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Sungdo Engineering Construction to buy it.
The correlation of Sungdo Engineering is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Sungdo Engineering moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Sungdo Engineering moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Sungdo Engineering can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Sungdo Stock

Sungdo Engineering financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sungdo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sungdo with respect to the benefits of owning Sungdo Engineering security.