Kepco Plant Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

051600 Stock   46,850  350.00  0.74%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kepco Plant S on the next trading day is expected to be 47,000 with a mean absolute deviation of 587.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34,657. Kepco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kepco Plant stock prices and determine the direction of Kepco Plant S's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Kepco Plant's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Kepco Plant works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Kepco Plant Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kepco Plant S on the next trading day is expected to be 47,000 with a mean absolute deviation of 587.40, mean absolute percentage error of 563,228, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34,657.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kepco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kepco Plant's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kepco Plant Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Kepco PlantKepco Plant Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Kepco Plant Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kepco Plant's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kepco Plant's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46,999 and 47,002, respectively. We have considered Kepco Plant's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
46,850
46,999
Downside
47,000
Expected Value
47,002
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kepco Plant stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kepco Plant stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -113.2559
MADMean absolute deviation587.4028
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0135
SAESum of the absolute errors34656.766
When Kepco Plant S prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Kepco Plant S trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Kepco Plant observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Kepco Plant

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kepco Plant S. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
46,84846,85046,852
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45,62345,62551,535
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
43,05945,24747,436
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Kepco Plant

For every potential investor in Kepco, whether a beginner or expert, Kepco Plant's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kepco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kepco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kepco Plant's price trends.

Kepco Plant Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kepco Plant stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kepco Plant could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kepco Plant by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Kepco Plant S Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kepco Plant's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kepco Plant's current price.

Kepco Plant Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kepco Plant stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kepco Plant shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kepco Plant stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kepco Plant S entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kepco Plant Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kepco Plant's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kepco Plant's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kepco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Kepco Plant

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Kepco Plant position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Kepco Plant will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Kepco Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Kepco Plant could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Kepco Plant when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Kepco Plant - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Kepco Plant S to buy it.
The correlation of Kepco Plant is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Kepco Plant moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Kepco Plant S moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Kepco Plant can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Kepco Stock

Kepco Plant financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kepco Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kepco with respect to the benefits of owning Kepco Plant security.