Hyundai Rotem Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

064350 Stock   47,550  1,550  3.37%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hyundai Rotem Co on the next trading day is expected to be 46,969 with a mean absolute deviation of 1,570 and the sum of the absolute errors of 94,189. Hyundai Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hyundai Rotem stock prices and determine the direction of Hyundai Rotem Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hyundai Rotem's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Hyundai Rotem works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Hyundai Rotem Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hyundai Rotem Co on the next trading day is expected to be 46,969 with a mean absolute deviation of 1,570, mean absolute percentage error of 4,669,627, and the sum of the absolute errors of 94,189.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hyundai Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hyundai Rotem's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hyundai Rotem Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hyundai RotemHyundai Rotem Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hyundai Rotem Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hyundai Rotem's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hyundai Rotem's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46,965 and 46,972, respectively. We have considered Hyundai Rotem's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
47,550
46,965
Downside
46,969
Expected Value
46,972
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hyundai Rotem stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hyundai Rotem stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -128.7749
MADMean absolute deviation1569.8088
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0278
SAESum of the absolute errors94188.5284
When Hyundai Rotem Co prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Hyundai Rotem Co trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Hyundai Rotem observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Hyundai Rotem

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hyundai Rotem. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
47,54647,55047,554
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
43,39343,39652,305
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
46,29559,70673,117
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hyundai Rotem. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hyundai Rotem's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hyundai Rotem's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hyundai Rotem.

Other Forecasting Options for Hyundai Rotem

For every potential investor in Hyundai, whether a beginner or expert, Hyundai Rotem's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hyundai Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hyundai. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hyundai Rotem's price trends.

Hyundai Rotem Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hyundai Rotem stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hyundai Rotem could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hyundai Rotem by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hyundai Rotem Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hyundai Rotem's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hyundai Rotem's current price.

Hyundai Rotem Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hyundai Rotem stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hyundai Rotem shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hyundai Rotem stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hyundai Rotem Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hyundai Rotem Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hyundai Rotem's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hyundai Rotem's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hyundai stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Hyundai Rotem

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Hyundai Rotem position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Hyundai Rotem will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Hyundai Rotem could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Hyundai Rotem when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Hyundai Rotem - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Hyundai Rotem Co to buy it.
The correlation of Hyundai Rotem is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Hyundai Rotem moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Hyundai Rotem moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Hyundai Rotem can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Hyundai Stock

Hyundai Rotem financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hyundai Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hyundai with respect to the benefits of owning Hyundai Rotem security.