Adaptive Plasma Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

089970 Stock   6,940  350.00  5.31%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Adaptive Plasma Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 6,752 with a mean absolute deviation of 289.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16,510. Adaptive Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Adaptive Plasma stock prices and determine the direction of Adaptive Plasma Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Adaptive Plasma's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Adaptive Plasma Technology is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Adaptive Plasma 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Adaptive Plasma Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 6,752 with a mean absolute deviation of 289.65, mean absolute percentage error of 144,046, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16,510.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adaptive Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adaptive Plasma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Adaptive Plasma Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Adaptive PlasmaAdaptive Plasma Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Adaptive Plasma Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Adaptive Plasma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adaptive Plasma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6,749 and 6,756, respectively. We have considered Adaptive Plasma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6,940
6,752
Expected Value
6,756
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adaptive Plasma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adaptive Plasma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.6369
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 148.5088
MADMean absolute deviation289.6491
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.035
SAESum of the absolute errors16510.0
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Adaptive Plasma. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Adaptive Plasma Technology and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Adaptive Plasma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adaptive Plasma Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6,9376,9406,943
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6,4786,4817,634
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Adaptive Plasma. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Adaptive Plasma's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Adaptive Plasma's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Adaptive Plasma Tech.

Other Forecasting Options for Adaptive Plasma

For every potential investor in Adaptive, whether a beginner or expert, Adaptive Plasma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adaptive Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adaptive. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adaptive Plasma's price trends.

Adaptive Plasma Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adaptive Plasma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adaptive Plasma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adaptive Plasma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Adaptive Plasma Tech Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Adaptive Plasma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Adaptive Plasma's current price.

Adaptive Plasma Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adaptive Plasma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adaptive Plasma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adaptive Plasma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adaptive Plasma Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Adaptive Plasma Risk Indicators

The analysis of Adaptive Plasma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adaptive Plasma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adaptive stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Adaptive Plasma

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Adaptive Plasma position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Adaptive Plasma will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Adaptive Stock

  0.85108320 LX SemiconPairCorr
  0.94064760 Tokai Carbon KoreaPairCorr
  0.62137400 People TechnologyPairCorr
  0.91166090 Hana MaterialsPairCorr

Moving against Adaptive Stock

  0.56203650 Dream Security coPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Adaptive Plasma could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Adaptive Plasma when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Adaptive Plasma - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Adaptive Plasma Technology to buy it.
The correlation of Adaptive Plasma is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Adaptive Plasma moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Adaptive Plasma Tech moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Adaptive Plasma can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Adaptive Stock

Adaptive Plasma financial ratios help investors to determine whether Adaptive Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Adaptive with respect to the benefits of owning Adaptive Plasma security.