Ezwelfare Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

090850 Stock  KRW 5,550  520.00  8.57%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ezwelfare Co on the next trading day is expected to be 5,330 with a mean absolute deviation of 98.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,979. Ezwelfare Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ezwelfare stock prices and determine the direction of Ezwelfare Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ezwelfare's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Ezwelfare is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Ezwelfare Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Ezwelfare Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ezwelfare Co on the next trading day is expected to be 5,330 with a mean absolute deviation of 98.02, mean absolute percentage error of 17,467, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,979.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ezwelfare Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ezwelfare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ezwelfare Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest EzwelfareEzwelfare Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ezwelfare Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ezwelfare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ezwelfare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5,328 and 5,333, respectively. We have considered Ezwelfare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5,550
5,330
Expected Value
5,333
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ezwelfare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ezwelfare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.8786
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation98.0238
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0174
SAESum of the absolute errors5979.4497
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Ezwelfare Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Ezwelfare. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Ezwelfare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ezwelfare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5,5475,5505,553
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4,4934,4966,105
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
4,6245,7016,779
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ezwelfare. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ezwelfare's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ezwelfare's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ezwelfare.

Other Forecasting Options for Ezwelfare

For every potential investor in Ezwelfare, whether a beginner or expert, Ezwelfare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ezwelfare Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ezwelfare. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ezwelfare's price trends.

Ezwelfare Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ezwelfare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ezwelfare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ezwelfare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ezwelfare Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ezwelfare's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ezwelfare's current price.

Ezwelfare Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ezwelfare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ezwelfare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ezwelfare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ezwelfare Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ezwelfare Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ezwelfare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ezwelfare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ezwelfare stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Ezwelfare

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ezwelfare position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ezwelfare will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Ezwelfare Stock

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  0.74123040 MS Autotech CoLtdPairCorr
  0.73122690 Seojin Automotive CoLtdPairCorr
  0.7043220 HLB PowerPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ezwelfare could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ezwelfare when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ezwelfare - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ezwelfare Co to buy it.
The correlation of Ezwelfare is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ezwelfare moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ezwelfare moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ezwelfare can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Ezwelfare Stock

Ezwelfare financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ezwelfare Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ezwelfare with respect to the benefits of owning Ezwelfare security.