Intrum AB Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

0H9P Stock  SEK 37.82  0.30  0.79%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Intrum AB on the next trading day is expected to be 37.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.34. Intrum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Intrum AB's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Intrum AB's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Intrum AB fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Intrum AB's Cash is quite stable compared to the past year. Non Current Assets Total is expected to rise to about 79.4 B this year, although the value of Net Tangible Assets will most likely fall to (18.5 B).
A naive forecasting model for Intrum AB is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Intrum AB value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Intrum AB Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Intrum AB on the next trading day is expected to be 37.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.15, mean absolute percentage error of 2.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Intrum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Intrum AB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Intrum AB Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Intrum ABIntrum AB Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Intrum AB Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Intrum AB's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Intrum AB's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.20 and 39.88, respectively. We have considered Intrum AB's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
37.82
37.04
Expected Value
39.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Intrum AB stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Intrum AB stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.1015
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1532
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0264
SAESum of the absolute errors70.3448
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Intrum AB. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Intrum AB. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Intrum AB

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intrum AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
34.0736.9139.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.5328.3741.60
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
31.4742.2252.96
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Intrum AB

For every potential investor in Intrum, whether a beginner or expert, Intrum AB's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Intrum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Intrum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Intrum AB's price trends.

Intrum AB Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Intrum AB stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Intrum AB could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Intrum AB by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Intrum AB Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Intrum AB's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Intrum AB's current price.

Intrum AB Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Intrum AB stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Intrum AB shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Intrum AB stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Intrum AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Intrum AB Risk Indicators

The analysis of Intrum AB's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Intrum AB's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting intrum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Intrum Stock

Intrum AB financial ratios help investors to determine whether Intrum Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Intrum with respect to the benefits of owning Intrum AB security.