Hain Celestial Stock Forward View

0J2I Stock   1.37  0.21  18.10%   
Hain Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Hain Celestial's share price is at 58. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hain Celestial, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 58

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Hain Celestial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Hain Celestial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Hain Celestial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Hain Celestial Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Hain Celestial's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.64)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.07)
Using Hain Celestial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hain Celestial Group from the perspective of Hain Celestial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hain Celestial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.90.

Hain Celestial after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 1.39  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hain Celestial to cross-verify your projections.

Hain Celestial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Hain price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hain using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hain charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Hain Celestial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hain Celestial Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hain Celestial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hain Celestial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.90.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hain Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hain Celestial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hain Celestial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hain Celestial  Hain Celestial Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Hain Celestial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hain Celestial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hain Celestial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 6.32, respectively. We have considered Hain Celestial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.37
1.45
Expected Value
6.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hain Celestial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hain Celestial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.2885
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0467
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0398
SAESum of the absolute errors2.8968
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hain Celestial Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hain Celestial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hain Celestial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hain Celestial Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.071.396.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.051.095.95
Details

Hain Celestial After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Hain Celestial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hain Celestial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hain Celestial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Hain Celestial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Hain Celestial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hain Celestial's historical news coverage. Hain Celestial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 6.25, respectively. We have considered Hain Celestial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1.37
1.39
After-hype Price
6.25
Upside
Hain Celestial is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hain Celestial Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

Hain Celestial Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hain Celestial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hain Celestial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hain Celestial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.46 
4.86
  0.02 
  0.33 
8 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1.37
1.39
1.46 
12,150  
Notes

Hain Celestial Hype Timeline

Hain Celestial Group is presently traded for 1.37on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.33. Hain is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.39 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 1.46%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Hain Celestial is about 673.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.70. The company reported the revenue of 1.56 B. Net Loss for the year was (530.84 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 327.03 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hain Celestial to cross-verify your projections.

Hain Celestial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Hain Celestial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hain Celestial's future price movements. Getting to know how Hain Celestial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hain Celestial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Hain Celestial

For every potential investor in Hain, whether a beginner or expert, Hain Celestial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hain Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hain. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hain Celestial's price trends.

Hain Celestial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hain Celestial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hain Celestial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hain Celestial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hain Celestial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hain Celestial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hain Celestial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hain Celestial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hain Celestial Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hain Celestial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hain Celestial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hain Celestial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hain stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Hain Celestial

The number of cover stories for Hain Celestial depends on current market conditions and Hain Celestial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hain Celestial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hain Celestial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Hain Celestial Short Properties

Hain Celestial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hain Celestial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hain Celestial Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hain Celestial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hain Celestial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding90.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments54.4 M

Additional Tools for Hain Stock Analysis

When running Hain Celestial's price analysis, check to measure Hain Celestial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hain Celestial is operating at the current time. Most of Hain Celestial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hain Celestial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hain Celestial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hain Celestial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.