STMicroelectronics Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 0L9Y Stock | 28.74 1.10 3.69% |
STMicroelectronics Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At the present time, The value of RSI of STMicroelectronics' share price is at 57. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling STMicroelectronics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
Using STMicroelectronics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of STMicroelectronics NV from the perspective of STMicroelectronics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of STMicroelectronics NV on the next trading day is expected to be 28.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.41. STMicroelectronics after-hype prediction price | USD 28.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
STMicroelectronics |
STMicroelectronics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine STMicroelectronics price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for STMicroelectronics using various technical indicators. When you analyze STMicroelectronics charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
STMicroelectronics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of STMicroelectronics NV on the next trading day is expected to be 28.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict STMicroelectronics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that STMicroelectronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
STMicroelectronics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest STMicroelectronics | STMicroelectronics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
STMicroelectronics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting STMicroelectronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. STMicroelectronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.61 and 30.87, respectively. We have considered STMicroelectronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of STMicroelectronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent STMicroelectronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9097 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0707 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4166 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0161 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.41 |
Predictive Modules for STMicroelectronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as STMicroelectronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.STMicroelectronics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of STMicroelectronics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in STMicroelectronics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of STMicroelectronics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
STMicroelectronics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting STMicroelectronics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on STMicroelectronics' historical news coverage. STMicroelectronics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.61 and 30.83, respectively. We have considered STMicroelectronics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
STMicroelectronics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of STMicroelectronics is based on 3 months time horizon.
STMicroelectronics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as STMicroelectronics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading STMicroelectronics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with STMicroelectronics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 2.13 | 0.02 | 320.15 | 3 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
28.74 | 28.72 | 0.07 |
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STMicroelectronics Hype Timeline
STMicroelectronics is presently traded for 28.74on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -320.15. STMicroelectronics is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 28.72. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on STMicroelectronics is about 0.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of -291.41. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of STMicroelectronics to cross-verify your projections.STMicroelectronics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to STMicroelectronics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict STMicroelectronics' future price movements. Getting to know how STMicroelectronics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how STMicroelectronics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TYT | Toyota Motor Corp | (62.00) | 8 per month | 1.52 | 0.03 | 3.26 | (2.89) | 10.55 | |
| 0R15 | SoftBank Group Corp | (10,240) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 10.30 | (9.95) | 109.63 | |
| 0R1E | Nintendo Co | (130.00) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 4.54 | (6.16) | 21.82 | |
| 0J8P | IDEXX Laboratories | (608.01) | 8 per month | 1.32 | 0.02 | 2.86 | (2.37) | 17.25 | |
| 0I6K | DR Horton | (0.29) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.17 | (3.59) | 11.42 | |
| 0HBH | Air Products Chemicals | 0.34 | 8 per month | 2.31 | (0.01) | 2.66 | (2.38) | 20.35 | |
| 0P4F | Ford Motor | (1.01) | 7 per month | 1.27 | 0.08 | 3.31 | (2.27) | 17.68 | |
| 0LC3 | Synchrony Financial | 0.39 | 9 per month | 2.48 | (0.01) | 3.15 | (3.36) | 13.22 | |
| 0R29 | Intuitive Surgical | 0.62 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.47 | (2.70) | 7.33 | |
| 0LD8 | Target Corp | 0.18 | 7 per month | 1.86 | 0.03 | 3.19 | (3.11) | 8.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for STMicroelectronics
For every potential investor in STMicroelectronics, whether a beginner or expert, STMicroelectronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. STMicroelectronics Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in STMicroelectronics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying STMicroelectronics' price trends.STMicroelectronics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with STMicroelectronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of STMicroelectronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing STMicroelectronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
STMicroelectronics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how STMicroelectronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading STMicroelectronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying STMicroelectronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify STMicroelectronics NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 15649.04 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.26) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 29.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 29.39 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.53) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.10) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 57.45 |
STMicroelectronics Risk Indicators
The analysis of STMicroelectronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in STMicroelectronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stmicroelectronics stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.87 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for STMicroelectronics
The number of cover stories for STMicroelectronics depends on current market conditions and STMicroelectronics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that STMicroelectronics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about STMicroelectronics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for STMicroelectronics Stock Analysis
When running STMicroelectronics' price analysis, check to measure STMicroelectronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy STMicroelectronics is operating at the current time. Most of STMicroelectronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of STMicroelectronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move STMicroelectronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of STMicroelectronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.