Vinci SA Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

0NQM Stock   100.82  0.22  0.22%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vinci SA on the next trading day is expected to be 100.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.72. Vinci Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Vinci SA's Short Term Investments are comparatively stable compared to the past year. Short Term Debt is likely to gain to about 1.9 B in 2024, whereas Total Assets are likely to drop slightly above 87 B in 2024.
Vinci SA simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Vinci SA are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Vinci SA prices get older.

Vinci SA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vinci SA on the next trading day is expected to be 100.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90, mean absolute percentage error of 1.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vinci Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vinci SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vinci SA Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Vinci SAVinci SA Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Vinci SA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vinci SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vinci SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 99.65 and 101.99, respectively. We have considered Vinci SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
100.82
100.82
Expected Value
101.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vinci SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vinci SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.6713
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1433
MADMean absolute deviation0.8953
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0088
SAESum of the absolute errors53.72
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Vinci SA forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Vinci SA observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Vinci SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vinci SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.001.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.001.17
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
96.40103.05109.70
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Vinci SA

For every potential investor in Vinci, whether a beginner or expert, Vinci SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vinci Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vinci. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vinci SA's price trends.

Vinci SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vinci SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vinci SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vinci SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vinci SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vinci SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vinci SA's current price.

Vinci SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vinci SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vinci SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vinci SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vinci SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vinci SA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vinci SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vinci SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vinci stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Vinci Stock Analysis

When running Vinci SA's price analysis, check to measure Vinci SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vinci SA is operating at the current time. Most of Vinci SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vinci SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vinci SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vinci SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.