Coronation Financial Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

0P00017RIY   74.09  0.42  0.56%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Coronation Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 74.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.57. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Coronation Financial's fund prices and determine the direction of Coronation Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Coronation Financial is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Coronation Financial 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Coronation Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 74.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.57.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Coronation Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Coronation Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Coronation Financial Fund Forecast Pattern

Coronation Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Coronation Financial's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Coronation Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 73.61 and 75.17, respectively. We have considered Coronation Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
74.09
74.39
Expected Value
75.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Coronation Financial fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Coronation Financial fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.6088
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0832
MADMean absolute deviation0.6941
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0094
SAESum of the absolute errors39.565
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Coronation Financial. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Coronation Financial and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Coronation Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coronation Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Coronation Financial

For every potential investor in Coronation, whether a beginner or expert, Coronation Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Coronation Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Coronation. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Coronation Financial's price trends.

Coronation Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Coronation Financial fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Coronation Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Coronation Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Coronation Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Coronation Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Coronation Financial's current price.

Coronation Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Coronation Financial fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Coronation Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Coronation Financial fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Coronation Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Coronation Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Coronation Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Coronation Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting coronation fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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