TD Comfort Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

0P0001FAU5  CAD 17.40  0.07  0.40%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of TD Comfort Aggressive on the next trading day is expected to be 17.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.38. 0P0001FAU5 Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of TD Comfort's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
TD Comfort polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for TD Comfort Aggressive as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

TD Comfort Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of TD Comfort Aggressive on the next trading day is expected to be 17.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.38.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 0P0001FAU5 Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TD Comfort's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

TD Comfort Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest TD ComfortTD Comfort Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

TD Comfort Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting TD Comfort's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TD Comfort's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.83 and 17.88, respectively. We have considered TD Comfort's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.40
17.35
Expected Value
17.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TD Comfort fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TD Comfort fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.0519
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1046
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0062
SAESum of the absolute errors6.3776
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the TD Comfort historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for TD Comfort

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TD Comfort Aggressive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.8817.4017.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.7217.2417.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.3117.3817.44
Details

Other Forecasting Options for TD Comfort

For every potential investor in 0P0001FAU5, whether a beginner or expert, TD Comfort's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 0P0001FAU5 Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 0P0001FAU5. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TD Comfort's price trends.

TD Comfort Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TD Comfort fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TD Comfort could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TD Comfort by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

TD Comfort Aggressive Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of TD Comfort's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of TD Comfort's current price.

TD Comfort Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TD Comfort fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TD Comfort shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TD Comfort fund market strength indicators, traders can identify TD Comfort Aggressive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

TD Comfort Risk Indicators

The analysis of TD Comfort's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TD Comfort's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 0p0001fau5 fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with TD Comfort

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if TD Comfort position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in TD Comfort will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with 0P0001FAU5 Fund

  0.930P00012UCU RBC Global EquityPairCorr
  0.930P0001D8QF BMO Concentrated GlobalPairCorr
  0.870P000070HA CI Global AlphaPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to TD Comfort could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace TD Comfort when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back TD Comfort - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling TD Comfort Aggressive to buy it.
The correlation of TD Comfort is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as TD Comfort moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if TD Comfort Aggressive moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for TD Comfort can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in 0P0001FAU5 Fund

TD Comfort financial ratios help investors to determine whether 0P0001FAU5 Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 0P0001FAU5 with respect to the benefits of owning TD Comfort security.
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