Science Applications Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| 0V9N Stock | 111.61 2.31 2.11% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Science Applications International on the next trading day is expected to be 111.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 210.98. Science Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At the present time the value of rsi of Science Applications' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.21) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
Using Science Applications hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Science Applications International from the perspective of Science Applications response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Science Applications International on the next trading day is expected to be 111.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 210.98. Science Applications after-hype prediction price | USD 110.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Science |
Science Applications Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Science price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Science using various technical indicators. When you analyze Science charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Science Applications Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Science Applications International on the next trading day is expected to be 111.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.40, mean absolute percentage error of 19.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 210.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Science Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Science Applications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Science Applications Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Science Applications | Science Applications Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Science Applications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Science Applications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Science Applications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 109.33 and 114.31, respectively. We have considered Science Applications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Science Applications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Science Applications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.9177 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.4029 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0365 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 210.9823 |
Predictive Modules for Science Applications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Science Applications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Science Applications After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Science Applications at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Science Applications or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Science Applications, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Science Applications Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Science Applications' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Science Applications' historical news coverage. Science Applications' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 107.93 and 112.91, respectively. We have considered Science Applications' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Science Applications is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Science Applications is based on 3 months time horizon.
Science Applications Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Science Applications is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Science Applications backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Science Applications, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 2.49 | 1.19 | 0.05 | 3 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
111.61 | 110.42 | 1.07 |
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Science Applications Hype Timeline
Science Applications is presently traded for 111.61on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Science is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 110.42. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 68.98%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -1.07%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Science Applications is about 1660.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 111.56. About 87.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Science Applications to cross-verify your projections.Science Applications Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Science Applications' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Science Applications' future price movements. Getting to know how Science Applications' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Science Applications may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TYT | Toyota Motor Corp | 3.00 | 8 per month | 1.10 | 0.13 | 3.36 | (2.26) | 8.55 | |
| 0J8P | IDEXX Laboratories | 3.43 | 11 per month | 1.25 | 0.03 | 2.86 | (2.37) | 17.25 | |
| 0I6K | DR Horton | (4.22) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.17 | (3.59) | 10.43 | |
| 0HBH | Air Products Chemicals | (2.00) | 10 per month | 2.23 | (0) | 2.66 | (2.09) | 20.35 | |
| 0LC3 | Synchrony Financial | (0.61) | 7 per month | 2.27 | 0.06 | 3.15 | (2.36) | 13.22 | |
| 0LD8 | Target Corp | (0.50) | 5 per month | 1.69 | 0.09 | 3.19 | (3.00) | 8.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Science Applications
For every potential investor in Science, whether a beginner or expert, Science Applications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Science Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Science. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Science Applications' price trends.Science Applications Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Science Applications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Science Applications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Science Applications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Science Applications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Science Applications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Science Applications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Science Applications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Science Applications International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Science Applications Risk Indicators
The analysis of Science Applications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Science Applications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting science stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Variance | 6.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Science Applications
The number of cover stories for Science Applications depends on current market conditions and Science Applications' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Science Applications is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Science Applications' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Science Applications Short Properties
Science Applications' future price predictability will typically decrease when Science Applications' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Science Applications International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Science Applications' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Science Applications' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 56 M |
Additional Tools for Science Stock Analysis
When running Science Applications' price analysis, check to measure Science Applications' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Science Applications is operating at the current time. Most of Science Applications' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Science Applications' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Science Applications' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Science Applications to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.