Taiwan Cement Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| 1101 Stock | TWD 24.50 0.10 0.41% |
Double Exponential Smoothing is applied to Taiwan Cement Corp's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. AIC measures relative model quality — lower AIC values indicate a better-fitting model. The Double Exponential Smoothing model projects Taiwan Cement at 24.49 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This Double Exponential Smoothing output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Taiwan Cement at 24.49 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 18.79 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Taiwan Cement's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Taiwan Cement | Taiwan Cement Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast range for Taiwan Cement defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The current forecast range spans downside near 22.86 and upside near 26.13. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Double Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Taiwan Cement stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0416 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3184 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.7871 |
Other Forecasting Options for Taiwan Cement
The distribution of Taiwan Cement's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in Taiwan Cement's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Taiwan Cement's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price foreshadow trend changes in Taiwan.Taiwan Cement Related Equities
These stocks are related to Taiwan Cement within the Materials space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Profit comparisons show whether Taiwan Cement earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Sector-wide trends across this peer group split company-level factors from broader forces. These links can also guide portfolio spreading choices within the sector.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Taiwan Cement Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Taiwan Cement stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Taiwan Cement. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating Taiwan Cement sessions. Persistent divergence between momentum indicators and price often precedes trend reversals in Taiwan Cement.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0121 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.55 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.53 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.3 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.1 |
Taiwan Cement Risk Indicators
Assessing Taiwan Cement's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for taiwan stock. The level of risk embedded in Taiwan Cement's feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing Taiwan Cement's downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses. These risk measures complement the price analysis above by framing how dispersed recent returns have been.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Variance | 2.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Additional Tools for Taiwan Stock Analysis
Equity SearchSearch for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global marketsCryptocurrency CenterBuild and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrencyEquity ForecastingUse basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentumTheme RatingsDetermine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performanceStock ScreenerFind equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.Aroon OscillatorAnalyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratiosInvesting OpportunitiesExplore predefined thematic ideas and evaluate them within your portfolio contextPattern RecognitionUse different Pattern Recognition models to identify potential trend changes across multiple global exchangesPortfolio VolatilityCheck portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk