Sun Yad Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 1316 Stock | TWD 14.15 0.25 1.74% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sun Yad Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 14.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.03. Sun Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Sun Yad's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Sun Yad hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sun Yad Construction from the perspective of Sun Yad response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sun Yad Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 14.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.03. Sun Yad after-hype prediction price | TWD 14.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Sun Yad Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sun price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sun using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sun charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sun Yad Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sun Yad Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 14.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sun Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sun Yad's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sun Yad Stock Forecast Pattern
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Sun Yad Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sun Yad's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sun Yad's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.50 and 16.64, respectively. We have considered Sun Yad's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sun Yad stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sun Yad stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9374 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2628 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0174 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.0301 |
Predictive Modules for Sun Yad
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sun Yad Construction. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sun Yad After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sun Yad at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sun Yad or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sun Yad, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sun Yad Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sun Yad's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sun Yad's historical news coverage. Sun Yad's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.08 and 16.22, respectively. We have considered Sun Yad's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sun Yad is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sun Yad Construction is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sun Yad Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sun Yad is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sun Yad backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sun Yad, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.15 | 14.15 | 0.00 |
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Sun Yad Hype Timeline
Sun Yad Construction is presently traded for 14.15on Taiwan Stock Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Sun is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on Sun Yad is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.15. About 33.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company has Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 0.93. In the past many companies with similar price-to-book ratios have beat the market. Sun Yad Construction last dividend was issued on the 1st of August 2019. The entity had 922:1000 split on the 20th of October 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sun Yad to cross-verify your projections.Sun Yad Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sun Yad's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sun Yad's future price movements. Getting to know how Sun Yad's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sun Yad may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 1447 | Li Peng Enterprise | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.27 | (1.46) | 5.41 | |
| 6629 | Thai Kin Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.23 | (0.02) | 4.31 | (3.53) | 17.27 | |
| 6201 | Ya Horng Electronic | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.42 | (1.22) | 4.26 | |
| 2718 | Allmind Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.97 | (2.11) | 9.53 | |
| 8083 | Pro Hawk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1.25 | (0.63) | 2.13 | |
| 1524 | Gordon Auto Body | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.35 | 0.06 | 4.50 | (2.05) | 10.57 | |
| 8482 | Shane Global Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.97 | (2.51) | 6.90 | |
| 2752 | Tofu Restaurant Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.82 | (0.02) | 1.75 | (1.40) | 6.47 | |
| 1472 | Tri Ocean Textile | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.02 | (1.09) | 4.05 | |
| 1810 | Hocheng Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.82 | 0.01 | 3.72 | (2.67) | 14.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sun Yad
For every potential investor in Sun, whether a beginner or expert, Sun Yad's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sun Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sun. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sun Yad's price trends.Sun Yad Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sun Yad stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sun Yad could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sun Yad by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sun Yad Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sun Yad stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sun Yad shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sun Yad stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sun Yad Construction entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sun Yad Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sun Yad's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sun Yad's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sun stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Variance | 4.36 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sun Yad
The number of cover stories for Sun Yad depends on current market conditions and Sun Yad's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sun Yad is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sun Yad's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Sun Stock Analysis
When running Sun Yad's price analysis, check to measure Sun Yad's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sun Yad is operating at the current time. Most of Sun Yad's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sun Yad's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sun Yad's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sun Yad to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.