Chang Ho Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 1468 Stock | TWD 13.20 1.20 10.00% |
Chang Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Chang Ho's stock price is slightly above 69. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Chang, making its price go up or down. Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Chang Ho hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chang Ho Fibre from the perspective of Chang Ho response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chang Ho Fibre on the next trading day is expected to be 13.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.70. Chang Ho after-hype prediction price | TWD 13.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Chang |
Chang Ho Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Chang price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chang using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chang charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Chang Ho Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chang Ho Fibre on the next trading day is expected to be 13.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chang Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chang Ho's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Chang Ho Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Chang Ho | Chang Ho Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Chang Ho Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Chang Ho's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chang Ho's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.59 and 14.81, respectively. We have considered Chang Ho's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chang Ho stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chang Ho stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.0134 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.025 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1117 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0093 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.7 |
Predictive Modules for Chang Ho
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chang Ho Fibre. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Chang Ho After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Chang Ho at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chang Ho or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chang Ho, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Chang Ho Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Chang Ho's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chang Ho's historical news coverage. Chang Ho's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.60 and 14.80, respectively. We have considered Chang Ho's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Chang Ho is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chang Ho Fibre is based on 3 months time horizon.
Chang Ho Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chang Ho is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chang Ho backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chang Ho, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.20 | 13.20 | 0.00 |
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Chang Ho Hype Timeline
Chang Ho Fibre is presently traded for 13.20on Taiwan Stock Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Chang is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on Chang Ho is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.20. About 85.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company has Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.66. In the past many companies with similar price-to-book ratios have beat the market. Chang Ho Fibre last dividend was issued on the 2nd of July 2003. The entity had 108:100 split on the 14th of August 2001. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chang Ho to cross-verify your projections.Chang Ho Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Chang Ho's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chang Ho's future price movements. Getting to know how Chang Ho's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chang Ho may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 1445 | Universal Textile Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.86 | (2.40) | 6.43 | |
| 1432 | Trk Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.95 | (0.0002) | 1.67 | (1.10) | 13.28 | |
| 1470 | Evertex Fabrinology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.00 | (0.04) | 2.01 | (2.43) | 8.21 | |
| 5906 | Taiwan EnterpriseCo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.41 | (0.01) | 2.66 | (2.11) | 15.58 | |
| 9944 | Shinih Enterprise Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.53 | (0.12) | 0.90 | (1.18) | 2.68 | |
| 1466 | Acelon Chemicals Fiber | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 2.48 | (3.42) | 9.84 | |
| 1467 | Tex Ray Industrial Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.70 | 0.0009 | 1.28 | (1.37) | 7.36 | |
| 4442 | JB International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.15 | (0.01) | 7.14 | (4.41) | 19.79 | |
| 4426 | Li Cheng Enterprise | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 0.70 | (0.90) | 14.19 | |
| 4420 | Kwang Ming Silk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.50 | (0.14) | 0.79 | (0.98) | 2.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for Chang Ho
For every potential investor in Chang, whether a beginner or expert, Chang Ho's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chang Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chang. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chang Ho's price trends.Chang Ho Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chang Ho stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chang Ho could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chang Ho by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chang Ho Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chang Ho stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chang Ho shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chang Ho stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chang Ho Fibre entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Chang Ho Risk Indicators
The analysis of Chang Ho's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chang Ho's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chang stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9745 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8667 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Variance | 2.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7512 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Chang Ho
The number of cover stories for Chang Ho depends on current market conditions and Chang Ho's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chang Ho is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chang Ho's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Chang Stock Analysis
When running Chang Ho's price analysis, check to measure Chang Ho's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chang Ho is operating at the current time. Most of Chang Ho's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chang Ho's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chang Ho's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chang Ho to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.