159681 Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 159681 Etf | 0.96 0.04 4.00% |
159681 |
159681 Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of 159681 on the next trading day is expected to be 0.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 159681 Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 159681's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
159681 Etf Forecast Pattern
159681 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 159681's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 159681's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 6.19, respectively. We have considered 159681's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 159681 etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 159681 etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.2555 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.005 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0263 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0278 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.58 |
Predictive Modules for 159681
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 159681. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 159681. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 159681's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 159681's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in 159681.Other Forecasting Options for 159681
For every potential investor in 159681, whether a beginner or expert, 159681's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 159681 Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 159681. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 159681's price trends.159681 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 159681 etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 159681 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 159681 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
159681 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 159681's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 159681's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
159681 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 159681 etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 159681 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 159681 etf market strength indicators, traders can identify 159681 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
159681 Risk Indicators
The analysis of 159681's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 159681's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 159681 etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.88 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.95 | |||
| Variance | 24.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 21.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.