Hercules Capital Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 19H Stock | EUR 18.34 0.27 1.49% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hercules Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 18.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.86. Hercules Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hercules Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Hercules |
Hercules Capital Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hercules Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 18.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hercules Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hercules Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hercules Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
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Hercules Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hercules Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hercules Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.11 and 19.57, respectively. We have considered Hercules Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hercules Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hercules Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2939 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.019 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1643 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.86 |
Predictive Modules for Hercules Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hercules Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Hercules Capital
For every potential investor in Hercules, whether a beginner or expert, Hercules Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hercules Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hercules. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hercules Capital's price trends.Hercules Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hercules Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hercules Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hercules Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hercules Capital Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hercules Capital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hercules Capital's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hercules Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hercules Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hercules Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hercules Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hercules Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.34 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.34 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.27 |
Hercules Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hercules Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hercules Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hercules stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8922 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Variance | 1.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Hercules Stock
When determining whether Hercules Capital offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Hercules Capital's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Hercules Capital Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Hercules Capital Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hercules Capital to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Hercules Stock please use our How to Invest in Hercules Capital guide.You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.