GEK Terna Stock Forward View
| 1GT Stock | 34.00 1.44 4.42% |
GEK Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of GEK Terna's stock price is slightly above 67. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling GEK, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using GEK Terna hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GEK Terna Holding from the perspective of GEK Terna response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GEK Terna Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 33.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.50. GEK Terna after-hype prediction price | EUR 34.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
GEK |
GEK Terna Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GEK price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GEK using various technical indicators. When you analyze GEK charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GEK Terna Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GEK Terna Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 33.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85, mean absolute percentage error of 1.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GEK Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GEK Terna's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GEK Terna Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GEK Terna | GEK Terna Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
GEK Terna Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GEK Terna's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GEK Terna's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.59 and 38.48, respectively. We have considered GEK Terna's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GEK Terna stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GEK Terna stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.2233 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8468 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0335 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 52.5013 |
Predictive Modules for GEK Terna
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GEK Terna Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GEK Terna's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GEK Terna After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GEK Terna at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GEK Terna or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GEK Terna, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GEK Terna Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GEK Terna's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GEK Terna's historical news coverage. GEK Terna's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.32 and 39.22, respectively. We have considered GEK Terna's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GEK Terna is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GEK Terna Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
GEK Terna Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GEK Terna is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GEK Terna backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GEK Terna, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.97 | 4.95 | 0.27 | 0.54 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
34.00 | 34.27 | 0.79 |
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GEK Terna Hype Timeline
GEK Terna Holding is presently traded for 34.00on Stuttgart Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.54. GEK is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 34.27 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.79%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.97%. The volatility of related hype on GEK Terna is about 893.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.54. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GEK Terna to cross-verify your projections.GEK Terna Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GEK Terna's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GEK Terna's future price movements. Getting to know how GEK Terna's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GEK Terna may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NRM | Insurance Australia Group | 0.06 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.26 | (2.26) | 5.47 | |
| WSV2 | VIENNA INSURANCE GR | 0.60 | 1 per month | 0.84 | 0.25 | 6.44 | (2.21) | 11.82 | |
| 8KH | TOREX SEMICONDUCTOR LTD | 0.20 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.02 | (3.57) | 12.96 | |
| 18M | Sabre Insurance Group | (0.05) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.23 | (4.73) | 12.21 | |
| RGPB | Reinsurance Group of | 2.00 | 8 per month | 1.46 | 0.04 | 2.50 | (2.91) | 6.28 | |
| ELG | ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR | 0.00 | 2 per month | 1.14 | 0.09 | 2.56 | (2.18) | 14.33 | |
| H0O | REVO INSURANCE SPA | 1.54 | 6 per month | 3.67 | 0.12 | 9.31 | (9.22) | 24.57 | |
| NRM | INSURANCE AUST GRP | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.84 | (0.03) | 2.26 | (1.84) | 5.96 |
Other Forecasting Options for GEK Terna
For every potential investor in GEK, whether a beginner or expert, GEK Terna's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GEK Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GEK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GEK Terna's price trends.GEK Terna Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GEK Terna stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GEK Terna could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GEK Terna by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GEK Terna Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GEK Terna stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GEK Terna shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GEK Terna stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GEK Terna Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
GEK Terna Risk Indicators
The analysis of GEK Terna's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GEK Terna's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gek stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.93 | |||
| Variance | 24.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GEK Terna
The number of cover stories for GEK Terna depends on current market conditions and GEK Terna's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GEK Terna is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GEK Terna's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GEK Terna Short Properties
GEK Terna's future price predictability will typically decrease when GEK Terna's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GEK Terna Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GEK Terna's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GEK Terna's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.3 M | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.016 | |
| Short Term Investments | 31.7 M |
Additional Tools for GEK Stock Analysis
When running GEK Terna's price analysis, check to measure GEK Terna's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GEK Terna is operating at the current time. Most of GEK Terna's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GEK Terna's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GEK Terna's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GEK Terna to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.