Patec Precision Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

2236 Stock  TWD 112.00  1.00  0.90%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Patec Precision Industry on the next trading day is expected to be 121.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 323.27. Patec Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Patec Precision's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Patec Precision's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Patec Precision and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Patec Precision's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Patec Precision Industry, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Patec Precision hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Patec Precision Industry from the perspective of Patec Precision response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Patec Precision Industry on the next trading day is expected to be 121.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 323.27.

Patec Precision after-hype prediction price

    
  TWD 112.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Patec Precision to cross-verify your projections.

Patec Precision Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Patec price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Patec using various technical indicators. When you analyze Patec charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Patec Precision price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Patec Precision Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Patec Precision Industry on the next trading day is expected to be 121.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.21, mean absolute percentage error of 35.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 323.27.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Patec Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Patec Precision's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Patec Precision Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Patec PrecisionPatec Precision Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Patec Precision Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Patec Precision's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Patec Precision's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 119.40 and 124.27, respectively. We have considered Patec Precision's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
112.00
119.40
Downside
121.84
Expected Value
124.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Patec Precision stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Patec Precision stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.5162
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation5.214
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0499
SAESum of the absolute errors323.2688
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Patec Precision Industry historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Patec Precision

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Patec Precision Industry. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
109.56112.00114.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
100.80132.16134.60
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
103.58112.85122.12
Details

Patec Precision After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Patec Precision at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Patec Precision or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Patec Precision, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Patec Precision Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Patec Precision's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Patec Precision's historical news coverage. Patec Precision's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 109.56 and 114.44, respectively. We have considered Patec Precision's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
112.00
109.56
Downside
112.00
After-hype Price
114.44
Upside
Patec Precision is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Patec Precision Industry is based on 3 months time horizon.

Patec Precision Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Patec Precision is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Patec Precision backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Patec Precision, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.32 
2.44
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
112.00
112.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Patec Precision Hype Timeline

Patec Precision Industry is presently traded for 112.00on Taiwan Stock Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Patec is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Patec Precision is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 112.00. About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company has Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 0.97. In the past many companies with similar price-to-book ratios have beat the market. Patec Precision Industry last dividend was issued on the 16th of September 2022. The entity had 1000:1030 split on the 25th of October 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Patec Precision to cross-verify your projections.

Patec Precision Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Patec Precision's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Patec Precision's future price movements. Getting to know how Patec Precision's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Patec Precision may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
6829ChenFull Precision Co 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 2.62 (2.14) 7.77 
4566Globaltek Fabrication Co 0.00 0 per month 1.59 (0.01) 2.68 (3.15) 13.46 
6725Cica Huntek Chemical Technology 0.00 0 per month 3.67  0.01  8.13 (6.25) 16.47 
1580Sinmag Equipment 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.23) 0.74 (1.08) 3.67 
6706Fittech Co 0.00 0 per month 3.72  0.15  9.77 (7.11) 19.71 
6727Asia Metal Industries 0.00 0 per month 3.13  0.01  5.85 (4.09) 16.66 
1583Goodway Machine Corp 0.00 0 per month 1.46 (0.03) 4.20 (2.72) 9.12 
5521Kung Sing Engineering 0.00 0 per month 3.37  0.21  9.89 (6.34) 19.83 
2236Patec Precision Industry 0.00 0 per month 1.77  0.12  4.71 (3.00) 11.33 
3004National Aerospace Fasteners 0.00 0 per month 2.81 (0.03) 4.50 (4.65) 11.58 

Other Forecasting Options for Patec Precision

For every potential investor in Patec, whether a beginner or expert, Patec Precision's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Patec Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Patec. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Patec Precision's price trends.

Patec Precision Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Patec Precision stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Patec Precision could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Patec Precision by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Patec Precision Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Patec Precision stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Patec Precision shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Patec Precision stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Patec Precision Industry entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Patec Precision Risk Indicators

The analysis of Patec Precision's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Patec Precision's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting patec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Patec Precision

The number of cover stories for Patec Precision depends on current market conditions and Patec Precision's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Patec Precision is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Patec Precision's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Patec Stock Analysis

When running Patec Precision's price analysis, check to measure Patec Precision's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Patec Precision is operating at the current time. Most of Patec Precision's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Patec Precision's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Patec Precision's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Patec Precision to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.