Otobrite Electronics Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

2256 Stock   33.55  1.15  3.55%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Otobrite Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 33.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.11. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Otobrite Electronics' stock prices and determine the direction of Otobrite Electronics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Otobrite Electronics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices. As of today the value of rsi of Otobrite Electronics' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Otobrite Electronics' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Otobrite Electronics and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Otobrite Electronics' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Otobrite Electronics, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Otobrite Electronics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Otobrite Electronics from the perspective of Otobrite Electronics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Otobrite Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 33.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.11.

Otobrite Electronics after-hype prediction price

    
  TWD 33.55  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.

Otobrite Electronics Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Otobrite price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Otobrite using various technical indicators. When you analyze Otobrite charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Otobrite Electronics price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Otobrite Electronics Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Otobrite Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 33.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.37, mean absolute percentage error of 2.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Otobrite Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Otobrite Electronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Otobrite Electronics Stock Forecast Pattern

Otobrite Electronics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Otobrite Electronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Otobrite Electronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.75 and 36.93, respectively. We have considered Otobrite Electronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
33.55
33.34
Expected Value
36.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Otobrite Electronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Otobrite Electronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria76.9082
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3712
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0441
SAESum of the absolute errors52.1066
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Otobrite Electronics historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Otobrite Electronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Otobrite Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Otobrite Electronics Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility

As far as predicting the price of Otobrite Electronics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Otobrite Electronics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Otobrite Electronics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Otobrite Electronics Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Otobrite Electronics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Otobrite Electronics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Otobrite Electronics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.46 
3.59
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
33.55
33.55
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Otobrite Electronics Hype Timeline

Otobrite Electronics is presently traded for 33.55on Taiwan OTC Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Otobrite is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.46%. %. The volatility of related hype on Otobrite Electronics is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.55. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.

Otobrite Electronics Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Otobrite Electronics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Otobrite Electronics' future price movements. Getting to know how Otobrite Electronics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Otobrite Electronics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
1526Sun Race Sturmey Archer 0.00 0 per month 1.41  0.08  4.30 (3.03) 8.49 
1324Globe Industries Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 1.94 (2.27) 12.60 
6867Tan De Tech 0.00 0 per month 2.02  0.03  4.03 (3.79) 11.26 
4430Yao I Fabric 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.13) 1.70 (1.64) 3.66 
2243HORNG SHIUE HOLDING 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 3.04 (2.95) 13.34 
1512Jui Li Enterprise 0.00 0 per month 1.35  0.01  7.38 (3.04) 13.36 
5364Lealea Hotels Resorts 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.24 (2.99) 13.73 
4972Tons Lightology 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.18) 1.10 (1.11) 3.06 
2736HOYA Resort Hotel 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 1.39 (1.95) 9.62 
5301CJW International LTD 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.03) 9.99 (5.28) 20.14 

Other Forecasting Options for Otobrite Electronics

For every potential investor in Otobrite, whether a beginner or expert, Otobrite Electronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Otobrite Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Otobrite. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Otobrite Electronics' price trends.

Otobrite Electronics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Otobrite Electronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Otobrite Electronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Otobrite Electronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Otobrite Electronics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Otobrite Electronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Otobrite Electronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Otobrite Electronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Otobrite Electronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Otobrite Electronics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Otobrite Electronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Otobrite Electronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting otobrite stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Otobrite Electronics

The number of cover stories for Otobrite Electronics depends on current market conditions and Otobrite Electronics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Otobrite Electronics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Otobrite Electronics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Otobrite Stock Analysis

When running Otobrite Electronics' price analysis, check to measure Otobrite Electronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Otobrite Electronics is operating at the current time. Most of Otobrite Electronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Otobrite Electronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Otobrite Electronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Otobrite Electronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.