Hong Pu Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 2536 Stock | TWD 22.35 0.35 1.54% |
Hong Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Hong Pu's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Hong Pu hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hong Pu Real from the perspective of Hong Pu response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hong Pu Real on the next trading day is expected to be 22.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.10. Hong Pu after-hype prediction price | TWD 22.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Hong |
Hong Pu Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hong price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hong using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hong charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hong Pu Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hong Pu Real on the next trading day is expected to be 22.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hong Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hong Pu's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hong Pu Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hong Pu | Hong Pu Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Hong Pu Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hong Pu's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hong Pu's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.38 and 23.32, respectively. We have considered Hong Pu's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hong Pu stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hong Pu stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.5683 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.065 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.185 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.1 |
Predictive Modules for Hong Pu
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hong Pu Real. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hong Pu After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hong Pu at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hong Pu or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hong Pu, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hong Pu Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hong Pu's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hong Pu's historical news coverage. Hong Pu's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.38 and 23.32, respectively. We have considered Hong Pu's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hong Pu is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hong Pu Real is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hong Pu Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hong Pu is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hong Pu backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hong Pu, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
22.35 | 22.35 | 0.00 |
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Hong Pu Hype Timeline
Hong Pu Real is presently traded for 22.35on Taiwan Stock Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Hong is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on Hong Pu is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.35. About 47.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company has Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 0.64. In the past many companies with similar price-to-book ratios have beat the market. Hong Pu Real last dividend was issued on the 24th of August 2021. The entity had 1099:1000 split on the 26th of August 2011. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hong Pu to cross-verify your projections.Hong Pu Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hong Pu's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hong Pu's future price movements. Getting to know how Hong Pu's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hong Pu may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 5525 | Sweeten Real Estate | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 0.73 | (1.56) | 4.50 | |
| 2505 | Kuo Yang Construction | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.81 | (0.08) | 1.82 | (1.53) | 5.17 | |
| 2527 | Hung Ching Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.68 | 0.04 | 3.58 | (2.78) | 13.81 | |
| 3056 | ZongTai Real Estate | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 2.06 | (1.75) | 7.61 | |
| 5531 | Shining Building Business | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.40 | (0.15) | 1.12 | (0.86) | 3.77 | |
| 2534 | Hung Sheng Construction | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.42 | (1.22) | 3.72 | |
| 2514 | Long Bon International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.78 | (0.07) | 1.68 | (1.36) | 7.42 | |
| 1436 | HUA YU LIEN | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.31 | (1.97) | 6.73 | |
| 2701 | Wanhwa Enterprise Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 0.90 | (0.91) | 2.27 | |
| 2348 | Hiyes International Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.99 | (2.55) | 7.45 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hong Pu
For every potential investor in Hong, whether a beginner or expert, Hong Pu's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hong Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hong. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hong Pu's price trends.Hong Pu Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hong Pu stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hong Pu could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hong Pu by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hong Pu Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hong Pu stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hong Pu shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hong Pu stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hong Pu Real entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hong Pu Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hong Pu's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hong Pu's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hong stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.739 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9989 | |||
| Variance | 0.9979 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hong Pu
The number of cover stories for Hong Pu depends on current market conditions and Hong Pu's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hong Pu is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hong Pu's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Hong Stock Analysis
When running Hong Pu's price analysis, check to measure Hong Pu's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hong Pu is operating at the current time. Most of Hong Pu's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hong Pu's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hong Pu's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hong Pu to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.