TSG Star Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 2719 Stock | TWD 28.05 0.10 0.36% |
TSG Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of TSG Star's share price is approaching 31. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling TSG Star, making its price go up or down. Momentum 31
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using TSG Star hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TSG Star Travel from the perspective of TSG Star response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TSG Star Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 28.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.70. TSG Star after-hype prediction price | TWD 28.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
TSG |
TSG Star Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TSG price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TSG using various technical indicators. When you analyze TSG charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TSG Star Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TSG Star Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 28.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TSG Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TSG Star's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TSG Star Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TSG Star | TSG Star Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
TSG Star Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TSG Star's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TSG Star's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.34 and 29.76, respectively. We have considered TSG Star's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TSG Star stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TSG Star stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2021 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1733 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4117 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0131 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.7 |
Predictive Modules for TSG Star
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TSG Star Travel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TSG Star After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TSG Star at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TSG Star or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TSG Star, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TSG Star Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TSG Star's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TSG Star's historical news coverage. TSG Star's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.34 and 29.76, respectively. We have considered TSG Star's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TSG Star is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TSG Star Travel is based on 3 months time horizon.
TSG Star Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TSG Star is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TSG Star backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TSG Star, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
28.05 | 28.05 | 0.00 |
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TSG Star Hype Timeline
TSG Star Travel is presently traded for 28.05on Taiwan OTC Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. TSG is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.46%. %. The volatility of related hype on TSG Star is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.05. About 67.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company recorded a loss per share of 4.28. TSG Star Travel last dividend was issued on the 21st of July 2015. The entity had 1000.00 - 550.00 split on the 24th of December 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TSG Star to cross-verify your projections.TSG Star Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TSG Star's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TSG Star's future price movements. Getting to know how TSG Star's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TSG Star may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 6961 | Uni Travel Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 1.39 | (2.17) | 13.71 | |
| 5324 | Shihlin Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.71 | 0.04 | 1.83 | (1.42) | 5.44 | |
| 2461 | K Laser Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0.01 | 1.69 | (2.07) | 12.73 | |
| 1568 | Tsang Yow Industrial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | 0.01 | 1.81 | (2.00) | 12.79 | |
| 4305 | Shih Kuen Plastics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.35 | 0.03 | 1.07 | (0.94) | 4.66 | |
| 7708 | 7708 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.85 | (1.03) | 6.07 | |
| 1475 | Big Sunshine Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.64 | (3.29) | 5.34 | |
| 1446 | Hong Ho Precision | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.90 | (2.11) | 10.01 | |
| 2734 | Ezfly International Travel | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.36 | (1.45) | 8.50 |
Other Forecasting Options for TSG Star
For every potential investor in TSG, whether a beginner or expert, TSG Star's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TSG Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TSG. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TSG Star's price trends.TSG Star Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TSG Star stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TSG Star could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TSG Star by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TSG Star Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TSG Star stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TSG Star shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TSG Star stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TSG Star Travel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
TSG Star Risk Indicators
The analysis of TSG Star's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TSG Star's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tsg stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Variance | 2.91 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TSG Star
The number of cover stories for TSG Star depends on current market conditions and TSG Star's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TSG Star is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TSG Star's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TSG Star Short Properties
TSG Star's future price predictability will typically decrease when TSG Star's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TSG Star Travel often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TSG Star's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TSG Star's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day | 8.2k | |
| Average Daily Volume In Three Month | 2.38k |
Additional Tools for TSG Stock Analysis
When running TSG Star's price analysis, check to measure TSG Star's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TSG Star is operating at the current time. Most of TSG Star's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TSG Star's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TSG Star's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TSG Star to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.