Kayee International Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 2939 Stock | TWD 21.95 0.55 2.44% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kayee International Group on the next trading day is expected to be 21.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.88. Kayee Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Kayee International's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Kayee International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kayee International Group from the perspective of Kayee International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kayee International Group on the next trading day is expected to be 21.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.88. Kayee International after-hype prediction price | TWD 21.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Kayee |
Kayee International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kayee price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kayee using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kayee charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kayee International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kayee International Group on the next trading day is expected to be 21.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kayee Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kayee International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kayee International Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kayee International | Kayee International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Kayee International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kayee International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kayee International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.92 and 23.63, respectively. We have considered Kayee International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kayee International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kayee International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5038 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3528 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0146 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.8753 |
Predictive Modules for Kayee International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kayee International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kayee International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kayee International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kayee International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kayee International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kayee International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kayee International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kayee International's historical news coverage. Kayee International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.60 and 24.30, respectively. We have considered Kayee International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kayee International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kayee International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kayee International Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kayee International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kayee International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kayee International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 2.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
21.95 | 21.95 | 0.00 |
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Kayee International Hype Timeline
Kayee International is presently traded for 21.95on Taiwan Stock Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Kayee is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Kayee International is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.95. About 46.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The book value of Kayee International was presently reported as 20.73. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 176.5. Kayee International last dividend was issued on the 21st of July 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kayee International to cross-verify your projections.Kayee International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kayee International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kayee International's future price movements. Getting to know how Kayee International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kayee International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 6441 | Ibase Gaming | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.34 | (2.42) | 5.84 | |
| 5011 | OFCO Industrial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.63 | 0.08 | 9.58 | (2.33) | 15.22 | |
| 3550 | Copartner Technology Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.42 | 0 | 5.40 | (3.99) | 17.84 | |
| 2061 | Feng Ching Metal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.60 | (3.69) | 13.70 | |
| 2071 | Chen Nan Iron | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.23 | (3.82) | 14.18 | |
| 6971 | 6971 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.42 | (1.93) | 8.20 | |
| 6593 | Taiwan Name Plate | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.36 | (3.71) | 16.42 | |
| 1539 | Chiu Ting Machinery | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.89 | 0.05 | 2.93 | (1.46) | 14.13 | |
| 7715 | 7715 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.37 | 0.01 | 4.73 | (3.76) | 19.81 | |
| 9929 | Choice Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.33 | (4.98) | 17.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kayee International
For every potential investor in Kayee, whether a beginner or expert, Kayee International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kayee Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kayee. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kayee International's price trends.Kayee International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kayee International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kayee International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kayee International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kayee International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kayee International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kayee International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kayee International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kayee International Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 342.46 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.22) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 22.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 22.07 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.45) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.55) |
Kayee International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kayee International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kayee International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kayee stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Variance | 5.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kayee International
The number of cover stories for Kayee International depends on current market conditions and Kayee International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kayee International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kayee International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Kayee International Short Properties
Kayee International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Kayee International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kayee International Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kayee International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kayee International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 45.5 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 91.1 M |
Additional Tools for Kayee Stock Analysis
When running Kayee International's price analysis, check to measure Kayee International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kayee International is operating at the current time. Most of Kayee International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kayee International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kayee International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kayee International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.