Shenyu Communication Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| 300563 Stock | 40.20 1.65 4.28% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Shenyu Communication Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 40.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.80. Shenyu Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Shenyu Communication stock prices and determine the direction of Shenyu Communication Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Shenyu Communication's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Shenyu Communication's share price is at 54. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Shenyu Communication, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.884 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.42 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.57 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
Using Shenyu Communication hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Shenyu Communication Technology from the perspective of Shenyu Communication response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Shenyu Communication Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 40.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.80. Shenyu Communication after-hype prediction price | CNY 40.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Shenyu |
Shenyu Communication Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Shenyu price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Shenyu using various technical indicators. When you analyze Shenyu charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Shenyu Communication Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Shenyu Communication Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 40.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78, mean absolute percentage error of 1.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shenyu Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shenyu Communication's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Shenyu Communication Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Shenyu Communication | Shenyu Communication Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Shenyu Communication Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Shenyu Communication's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shenyu Communication's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.62 and 42.78, respectively. We have considered Shenyu Communication's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shenyu Communication stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shenyu Communication stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4641 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0496 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7799 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0203 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.795 |
Predictive Modules for Shenyu Communication
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shenyu Communication. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Shenyu Communication After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Shenyu Communication at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Shenyu Communication or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Shenyu Communication, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Shenyu Communication Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Shenyu Communication's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Shenyu Communication's historical news coverage. Shenyu Communication's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.75 and 42.87, respectively. We have considered Shenyu Communication's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Shenyu Communication is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Shenyu Communication is based on 3 months time horizon.
Shenyu Communication Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Shenyu Communication is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Shenyu Communication backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Shenyu Communication, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 2.58 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 1 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
40.20 | 40.31 | 0.27 |
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Shenyu Communication Hype Timeline
Shenyu Communication is presently traded for 40.20on Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Shenyu is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 40.31 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Shenyu Communication is about 3909.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.19. The company reported the revenue of 877.1 M. Net Income was 79.54 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 168.09 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shenyu Communication to cross-verify your projections.Shenyu Communication Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Shenyu Communication's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Shenyu Communication's future price movements. Getting to know how Shenyu Communication's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Shenyu Communication may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 002594 | BYD Co Ltd | (0.04) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.92 | (2.04) | 7.84 | |
| 600941 | China Mobile Limited | 0.1 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.41) | 0.78 | (1.16) | 3.05 | |
| 601288 | Agricultural Bank of | (0.06) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.38 | (2.65) | 6.47 | |
| 601398 | Industrial and Commercial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 1.38 | (1.98) | 5.43 | |
| 601939 | China Construction Bank | 0.12 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.25 | (1.70) | 5.87 | |
| 601857 | PetroChina Co Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.25 | 0.06 | 2.15 | (2.28) | 8.08 | |
| 601668 | China State Construction | (0.43) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 0.78 | (1.50) | 5.14 | |
| 600028 | China Petroleum Chemical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.87 | 0.06 | 2.67 | (1.46) | 7.39 | |
| 601988 | Bank of China | (0.06) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.49 | (1.91) | 6.10 | |
| 601390 | China Railway Group | (0.29) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.27 | (1.79) | 3.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Shenyu Communication
For every potential investor in Shenyu, whether a beginner or expert, Shenyu Communication's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shenyu Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shenyu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shenyu Communication's price trends.Shenyu Communication Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shenyu Communication stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shenyu Communication could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shenyu Communication by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Shenyu Communication Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shenyu Communication stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shenyu Communication shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shenyu Communication stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shenyu Communication Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Shenyu Communication Risk Indicators
The analysis of Shenyu Communication's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shenyu Communication's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shenyu stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Variance | 6.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.04) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Shenyu Communication
The number of cover stories for Shenyu Communication depends on current market conditions and Shenyu Communication's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Shenyu Communication is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Shenyu Communication's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Shenyu Communication Short Properties
Shenyu Communication's future price predictability will typically decrease when Shenyu Communication's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Shenyu Communication Technology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Shenyu Communication's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shenyu Communication's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 185 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 266.2 M |
Other Information on Investing in Shenyu Stock
Shenyu Communication financial ratios help investors to determine whether Shenyu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Shenyu with respect to the benefits of owning Shenyu Communication security.