Fujian Nebula Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

300648 Stock   55.88  2.83  5.33%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fujian Nebula Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 51.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.75. Fujian Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fujian Nebula stock prices and determine the direction of Fujian Nebula Electronics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fujian Nebula's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Fujian Nebula's share price is at 58. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Fujian Nebula, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 58

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Fujian Nebula's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fujian Nebula Electronics, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Fujian Nebula's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.40)
Wall Street Target Price
40
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.226
Using Fujian Nebula hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fujian Nebula Electronics from the perspective of Fujian Nebula response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fujian Nebula Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 51.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.75.

Fujian Nebula after-hype prediction price

    
  CNY 56.4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fujian Nebula to cross-verify your projections.
At present, Fujian Nebula's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Other Current Liabilities is expected to grow to about 299.1 M, whereas Total Stockholder Equity is forecasted to decline to about 550 M.

Fujian Nebula Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Fujian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fujian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fujian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Fujian Nebula is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fujian Nebula Electronics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Fujian Nebula Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fujian Nebula Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 51.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.53, mean absolute percentage error of 3.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fujian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fujian Nebula's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fujian Nebula Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Fujian NebulaFujian Nebula Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Fujian Nebula Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fujian Nebula's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fujian Nebula's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.80 and 54.91, respectively. We have considered Fujian Nebula's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
55.88
51.35
Expected Value
54.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fujian Nebula stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fujian Nebula stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.3329
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5282
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0311
SAESum of the absolute errors94.7508
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Fujian Nebula Electronics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Fujian Nebula. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Fujian Nebula

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fujian Nebula Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
52.8556.4059.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
48.7552.3061.47
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
46.6352.7958.94
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fujian Nebula. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fujian Nebula's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fujian Nebula's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fujian Nebula Electronics.

Other Forecasting Options for Fujian Nebula

For every potential investor in Fujian, whether a beginner or expert, Fujian Nebula's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fujian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fujian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fujian Nebula's price trends.

Fujian Nebula Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fujian Nebula stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fujian Nebula could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fujian Nebula by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fujian Nebula Electronics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fujian Nebula's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fujian Nebula's current price.

Fujian Nebula Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fujian Nebula stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fujian Nebula shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fujian Nebula stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fujian Nebula Electronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fujian Nebula Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fujian Nebula's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fujian Nebula's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fujian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Fujian Stock

Fujian Nebula financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fujian Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fujian with respect to the benefits of owning Fujian Nebula security.