Shandong Intco Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

300677 Stock   20.71  3.47  14.35%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shandong Intco Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 20.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.48. Shandong Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Shandong Intco stock prices and determine the direction of Shandong Intco Medical's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Shandong Intco's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Shandong Intco's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Current Liabilities is expected to grow to about 10.4 B, whereas Other Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 4.1 M.
Triple exponential smoothing for Shandong Intco - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Shandong Intco prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Shandong Intco price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Shandong Intco Medical.

Shandong Intco Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shandong Intco Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 20.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shandong Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shandong Intco's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shandong Intco Stock Forecast Pattern

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Shandong Intco Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shandong Intco's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shandong Intco's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.21 and 23.10, respectively. We have considered Shandong Intco's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.71
20.66
Expected Value
23.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shandong Intco stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shandong Intco stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1315
MADMean absolute deviation0.4149
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0169
SAESum of the absolute errors24.4765
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Shandong Intco observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Shandong Intco Medical observations.

Predictive Modules for Shandong Intco

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shandong Intco Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.2620.7123.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.9322.3824.83
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Shandong Intco. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Shandong Intco's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Shandong Intco's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Shandong Intco Medical.

Other Forecasting Options for Shandong Intco

For every potential investor in Shandong, whether a beginner or expert, Shandong Intco's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shandong Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shandong. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shandong Intco's price trends.

Shandong Intco Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shandong Intco stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shandong Intco could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shandong Intco by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shandong Intco Medical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shandong Intco's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shandong Intco's current price.

Shandong Intco Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shandong Intco stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shandong Intco shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shandong Intco stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shandong Intco Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shandong Intco Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shandong Intco's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shandong Intco's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shandong stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Shandong Stock

Shandong Intco financial ratios help investors to determine whether Shandong Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Shandong with respect to the benefits of owning Shandong Intco security.