Shenzhen Urban Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

301091 Stock   46.00  2.40  4.96%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Shenzhen Urban Transport on the next trading day is expected to be 47.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.92. Shenzhen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Shenzhen Urban stock prices and determine the direction of Shenzhen Urban Transport's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Shenzhen Urban's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Shenzhen Urban's Non Currrent Assets Other are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Long Term Debt is expected to grow to about 53.8 M, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 2.5 B.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Shenzhen Urban Transport is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Shenzhen Urban 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 19th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Shenzhen Urban Transport on the next trading day is expected to be 47.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77, mean absolute percentage error of 5.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shenzhen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shenzhen Urban's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shenzhen Urban Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Nov 25Dec 3Dec 11Dec 19Dec 27Jan 7Jan 15Jan 23Feb 10Feb 1840455055
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Shenzhen Urban Transport Shenzhen Urban Transport forecast
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Shenzhen Urban Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shenzhen Urban's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shenzhen Urban's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.71 and 51.10, respectively. We have considered Shenzhen Urban's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
46.00
47.91
Expected Value
51.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shenzhen Urban stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shenzhen Urban stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.4561
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4306
MADMean absolute deviation1.7706
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0378
SAESum of the absolute errors100.925
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Shenzhen Urban. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Shenzhen Urban Transport and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Shenzhen Urban

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shenzhen Urban Transport. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
45.3448.5351.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
40.8043.9953.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
39.6344.9750.31
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Shenzhen Urban. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Shenzhen Urban's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Shenzhen Urban's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Shenzhen Urban Transport.

Other Forecasting Options for Shenzhen Urban

For every potential investor in Shenzhen, whether a beginner or expert, Shenzhen Urban's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shenzhen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shenzhen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shenzhen Urban's price trends.

Shenzhen Urban Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shenzhen Urban stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shenzhen Urban could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shenzhen Urban by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shenzhen Urban Transport Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shenzhen Urban's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shenzhen Urban's current price.

Shenzhen Urban Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shenzhen Urban stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shenzhen Urban shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shenzhen Urban stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shenzhen Urban Transport entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shenzhen Urban Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shenzhen Urban's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shenzhen Urban's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shenzhen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Shenzhen Stock

Shenzhen Urban financial ratios help investors to determine whether Shenzhen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Shenzhen with respect to the benefits of owning Shenzhen Urban security.