Novatek Microelectronics Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| 3034 Stock | TWD 441.50 21.50 5.12% |
Novatek Microelectronics Corp's Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The forecast is recalculated with each session so it does not rely on stale inputs. A small Bias confirms the model is not systematically over- or under-predicting. The Triple Exponential Smoothing model projects Novatek Microelectronics at 443.23 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Novatek Microelectronics at 443.23 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 6.55 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 392.73 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Novatek Microelectronics' recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Novatek Microelectronics | Novatek Microelectronics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The projected range for Novatek Microelectronics reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. Downside is estimated near 441.19 and upside near 445.27. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Triple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Novatek Microelectronics stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.4387 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.5455 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0167 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 392.7287 |
Other Forecasting Options for Novatek Microelectronics
Bollinger Bands applied to Novatek Stock price data measure how far Novatek has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Novatek Microelectronics' price data. On-balance volume for Novatek Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in Novatek. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for Novatek Microelectronics'.Novatek Microelectronics Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Novatek Microelectronics within the Information Technology space and serve as useful points for comparison. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Novatek Microelectronics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Novatek Microelectronics quantify how the stock responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Novatek Microelectronics. The Market Facilitation Index measures how efficiently price moves relative to volume — rising MFI with rising volume signals strong trend participation. Monitoring these indicators for Novatek Microelectronics through complete market cycles reveals recurring patterns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 327940.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.30303 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 433.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 436.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 19.0 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 21.5 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 62.06 |
Novatek Microelectronics Risk Indicators
Analyzing Novatek Microelectronics' risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in Novatek Microelectronics helps place recent price behavior in context. These metrics are most informative when compared against similar equities with comparable growth profiles and market capitalization. When semi-deviation is high relative to standard deviation, Novatek Microelectronics' losses have been disproportionately large compared to gains.
| Mean Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Variance | 4.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.71 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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