Megawin Technology Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

3122 Stock  TWD 21.45  0.45  2.14%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Megawin Technology Co on the next trading day is expected to be 22.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.00. Megawin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Megawin Technology's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Megawin Technology's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Megawin Technology and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Megawin Technology's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Megawin Technology Co, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Megawin Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Megawin Technology Co from the perspective of Megawin Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Megawin Technology Co on the next trading day is expected to be 22.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.00.

Megawin Technology after-hype prediction price

    
  TWD 21.45  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Megawin Technology to cross-verify your projections.

Megawin Technology Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Megawin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Megawin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Megawin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Megawin Technology is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Megawin Technology Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Megawin Technology Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of January 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Megawin Technology Co on the next trading day is expected to be 22.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Megawin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Megawin Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Megawin Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Megawin TechnologyMegawin Technology Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Megawin Technology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Megawin Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Megawin Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.32 and 24.01, respectively. We have considered Megawin Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.45
22.17
Expected Value
24.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Megawin Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Megawin Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.63
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4193
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0188
SAESum of the absolute errors25.9991
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Megawin Technology Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Megawin Technology. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Megawin Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Megawin Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.6021.4523.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.1718.0223.60
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Megawin Technology

For every potential investor in Megawin, whether a beginner or expert, Megawin Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Megawin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Megawin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Megawin Technology's price trends.

Megawin Technology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Megawin Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Megawin Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Megawin Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Megawin Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Megawin Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Megawin Technology's current price.

Megawin Technology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Megawin Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Megawin Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Megawin Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Megawin Technology Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Megawin Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Megawin Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Megawin Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting megawin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Megawin Technology

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Megawin Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Megawin Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Megawin Stock

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  0.672882 Cathay Financial HoldingPairCorr
  0.582303 United MicroelectronicsPairCorr
  0.516505 Formosa PetrochemicalPairCorr
  0.423162 United Alloy TechPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Megawin Technology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Megawin Technology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Megawin Technology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Megawin Technology Co to buy it.
The correlation of Megawin Technology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Megawin Technology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Megawin Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Megawin Technology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Megawin Stock Analysis

When running Megawin Technology's price analysis, check to measure Megawin Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Megawin Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Megawin Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Megawin Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Megawin Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Megawin Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.