Topower Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

3226 Stock  TWD 50.90  1.60  3.25%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Topower Co on the next trading day is expected to be 53.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.69. Topower Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Topower's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Topower's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Topower and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Topower's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Topower Co, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Topower hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Topower Co from the perspective of Topower response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Topower Co on the next trading day is expected to be 53.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.69.

Topower after-hype prediction price

    
  TWD 50.9  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Topower to cross-verify your projections.

Topower Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Topower price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Topower using various technical indicators. When you analyze Topower charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Topower is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Topower Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Topower Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of January 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Topower Co on the next trading day is expected to be 53.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11, mean absolute percentage error of 2.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.69.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Topower Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Topower's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Topower Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest TopowerTopower Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Topower Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Topower's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Topower's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.45 and 56.42, respectively. We have considered Topower's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
50.90
53.43
Expected Value
56.42
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Topower stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Topower stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.6451
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1078
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0249
SAESum of the absolute errors68.6853
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Topower Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Topower. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Topower

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Topower. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
47.9250.9053.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
37.4840.4655.99
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Topower

For every potential investor in Topower, whether a beginner or expert, Topower's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Topower Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Topower. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Topower's price trends.

Topower Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Topower stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Topower could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Topower by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Topower Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Topower's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Topower's current price.

Topower Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Topower stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Topower shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Topower stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Topower Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Topower Risk Indicators

The analysis of Topower's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Topower's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting topower stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Topower

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Topower position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Topower will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Topower Stock

  0.395309 SysgrationPairCorr
  0.380057 Fubon MSCI TaiwanPairCorr
  0.370050 YuantaP shares TaiwanPairCorr
  0.323008 LARGAN PrecisionPairCorr
  0.316531 AP Memory TechnologyPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Topower could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Topower when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Topower - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Topower Co to buy it.
The correlation of Topower is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Topower moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Topower moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Topower can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Topower Stock Analysis

When running Topower's price analysis, check to measure Topower's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Topower is operating at the current time. Most of Topower's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Topower's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Topower's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Topower to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.