Celxpert Energy Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

3323 Stock  TWD 36.00  0.95  2.57%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Celxpert Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 35.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.70. Celxpert Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Celxpert Energy works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Celxpert Energy Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Celxpert Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 35.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08, mean absolute percentage error of 2.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Celxpert Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Celxpert Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Celxpert Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Celxpert EnergyCelxpert Energy Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Celxpert Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Celxpert Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Celxpert Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.45 and 40.29, respectively. We have considered Celxpert Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
36.00
35.87
Expected Value
40.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Celxpert Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Celxpert Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0687
MADMean absolute deviation1.0797
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0334
SAESum of the absolute errors63.7019
When Celxpert Energy prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Celxpert Energy trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Celxpert Energy observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Celxpert Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Celxpert Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.5836.0040.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.8735.2939.71
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
34.0040.2046.40
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Celxpert Energy

For every potential investor in Celxpert, whether a beginner or expert, Celxpert Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Celxpert Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Celxpert. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Celxpert Energy's price trends.

Celxpert Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Celxpert Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Celxpert Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Celxpert Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Celxpert Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Celxpert Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Celxpert Energy's current price.

Celxpert Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Celxpert Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Celxpert Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Celxpert Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Celxpert Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Celxpert Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Celxpert Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Celxpert Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting celxpert stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Celxpert Energy

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Celxpert Energy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Celxpert Energy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Celxpert Stock

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  0.732327 Yageo CorpPairCorr
  0.696409 Voltronic Power TechPairCorr
  0.678069 E Ink HoldingsPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Celxpert Energy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Celxpert Energy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Celxpert Energy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Celxpert Energy to buy it.
The correlation of Celxpert Energy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Celxpert Energy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Celxpert Energy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Celxpert Energy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Celxpert Stock Analysis

When running Celxpert Energy's price analysis, check to measure Celxpert Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Celxpert Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Celxpert Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Celxpert Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Celxpert Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Celxpert Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.