Shian Yih Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

3531 Stock  TWD 21.80  0.65  2.90%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shian Yih Electronic on the next trading day is expected to be 22.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.91. Shian Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Shian Yih is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Shian Yih Electronic value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Shian Yih Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shian Yih Electronic on the next trading day is expected to be 22.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.91.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shian Yih's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shian Yih Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Shian YihShian Yih Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Shian Yih Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shian Yih's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shian Yih's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.31 and 23.72, respectively. We have considered Shian Yih's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.80
22.01
Expected Value
23.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shian Yih stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shian Yih stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.326
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2082
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0095
SAESum of the absolute errors12.9081
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Shian Yih Electronic. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Shian Yih. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Shian Yih

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shian Yih Electronic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.1021.8023.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.5718.2723.98
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
20.7121.5622.42
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Shian Yih

For every potential investor in Shian, whether a beginner or expert, Shian Yih's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shian Yih's price trends.

Shian Yih Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shian Yih stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shian Yih could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shian Yih by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shian Yih Electronic Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shian Yih's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shian Yih's current price.

Shian Yih Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shian Yih stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shian Yih shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shian Yih stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shian Yih Electronic entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shian Yih Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shian Yih's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shian Yih's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Shian Yih

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Shian Yih position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Shian Yih will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Shian Stock

  0.842008 Kao Hsiung ChangPairCorr
  0.746770 Powerchip SemiconductorPairCorr
  0.742643 Soonest ExpressPairCorr
  0.712887E Taishin Financial HoldingPairCorr
  0.712891B CTBC Financial HoldingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Shian Yih could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Shian Yih when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Shian Yih - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Shian Yih Electronic to buy it.
The correlation of Shian Yih is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Shian Yih moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Shian Yih Electronic moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Shian Yih can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Shian Stock Analysis

When running Shian Yih's price analysis, check to measure Shian Yih's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shian Yih is operating at the current time. Most of Shian Yih's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shian Yih's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shian Yih's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shian Yih to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.