Hep Tech Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

3609 Stock  TWD 39.00  2.85  6.81%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hep Tech Co on the next trading day is expected to be 40.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.17. Hep Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of Hep Tech's share price is at 52. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hep Tech, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 52

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Hep Tech's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Hep Tech and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Hep Tech's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Hep Tech Co, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Hep Tech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hep Tech Co from the perspective of Hep Tech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hep Tech Co on the next trading day is expected to be 40.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.17.

Hep Tech after-hype prediction price

    
  TWD 39.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hep Tech to cross-verify your projections.

Hep Tech Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Hep price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hep using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hep charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Hep Tech is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hep Tech Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hep Tech Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hep Tech Co on the next trading day is expected to be 40.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43, mean absolute percentage error of 4.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.17.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hep Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hep Tech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hep Tech Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hep TechHep Tech Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hep Tech Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hep Tech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hep Tech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.21 and 43.48, respectively. We have considered Hep Tech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
39.00
40.85
Expected Value
43.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hep Tech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hep Tech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.598
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.429
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0315
SAESum of the absolute errors87.172
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hep Tech Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hep Tech. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hep Tech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hep Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
36.3639.0041.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
32.8535.4942.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
38.2440.8243.39
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Hep Tech

For every potential investor in Hep, whether a beginner or expert, Hep Tech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hep Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hep. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hep Tech's price trends.

Hep Tech Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hep Tech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hep Tech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hep Tech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hep Tech Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hep Tech's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hep Tech's current price.

Hep Tech Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hep Tech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hep Tech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hep Tech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hep Tech Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hep Tech Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hep Tech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hep Tech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hep stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Hep Tech

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Hep Tech position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Hep Tech will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Hep Stock

  0.585274 Aspeed TechnologyPairCorr
  0.526669 Wiwynn CorpPairCorr
  0.492327 Yageo CorpPairCorr
  0.42603 Evergreen Marine CorpPairCorr
  0.392454 MediaTekPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Hep Tech could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Hep Tech when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Hep Tech - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Hep Tech Co to buy it.
The correlation of Hep Tech is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Hep Tech moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Hep Tech moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Hep Tech can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Hep Stock Analysis

When running Hep Tech's price analysis, check to measure Hep Tech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hep Tech is operating at the current time. Most of Hep Tech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hep Tech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hep Tech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hep Tech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.