RLX TECH Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 3CM Stock | EUR 2.00 0.04 2.04% |
RLX Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of RLX TECH's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of February 2026, The value of relative strength index of RLX TECH's share price is at 55. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling RLX TECH, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.217 | Wall Street Target Price 4.23 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.522 |
Using RLX TECH hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of RLX TECH SPADR1 from the perspective of RLX TECH response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RLX TECH SPADR1 on the next trading day is expected to be 2.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.57. RLX TECH after-hype prediction price | EUR 2.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
RLX |
RLX TECH Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RLX price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RLX using various technical indicators. When you analyze RLX charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
RLX TECH Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RLX TECH SPADR1 on the next trading day is expected to be 2.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RLX Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RLX TECH's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
RLX TECH Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest RLX TECH | RLX TECH Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
RLX TECH Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting RLX TECH's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RLX TECH's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.29 and 3.70, respectively. We have considered RLX TECH's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RLX TECH stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RLX TECH stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.4155 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 3.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0262 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0135 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.5692 |
Predictive Modules for RLX TECH
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RLX TECH SPADR1. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.RLX TECH After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of RLX TECH at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in RLX TECH or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of RLX TECH, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
RLX TECH Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting RLX TECH's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on RLX TECH's historical news coverage. RLX TECH's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.29 and 3.71, respectively. We have considered RLX TECH's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
RLX TECH is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of RLX TECH SPADR1 is based on 3 months time horizon.
RLX TECH Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as RLX TECH is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading RLX TECH backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with RLX TECH, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
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RLX TECH Hype Timeline
RLX TECH SPADR1 is presently traded for 2.00on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. RLX is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on RLX TECH is about 464.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.00. About 91.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company has Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.24. In the past many companies with similar price-to-book ratios have beat the market. RLX TECH SPADR1 last dividend was issued on the 26th of January 2026. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RLX TECH to cross-verify your projections.RLX TECH Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to RLX TECH's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict RLX TECH's future price movements. Getting to know how RLX TECH's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how RLX TECH may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WMT | Walmart | 0.71 | 6 per month | 1.22 | 0.11 | 3.77 | (2.27) | 10.70 | |
| WMT | Walmart | (0.18) | 9 per month | 1.16 | 0.11 | 3.26 | (2.23) | 10.87 | |
| AMZ | Amazon Inc | 2.85 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.56 | (2.94) | 11.65 | |
| AMZ1 | AMAZONCOM INCCDR DL 01 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.37 | (5.88) | 23.77 | |
| AMZ | Amazon Inc | (0.1) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.52 | (2.66) | 9.94 | |
| BY6 | BYD Company Limited | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.55 | (3.04) | 11.18 | |
| BY6A | BYD LTD ADR2 | 0.40 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.31 | (4.50) | 15.26 | |
| 013A | JD Inc Adr | 0.55 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.39 | (2.56) | 7.52 | |
| 013C | JD Inc | 0.20 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.80 | (3.29) | 10.00 | |
| CSA | Accenture plc | (8.15) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.49 | (5.14) | 15.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for RLX TECH
For every potential investor in RLX, whether a beginner or expert, RLX TECH's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RLX Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RLX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RLX TECH's price trends.RLX TECH Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RLX TECH stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RLX TECH could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RLX TECH by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RLX TECH Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RLX TECH stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RLX TECH shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RLX TECH stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RLX TECH SPADR1 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
RLX TECH Risk Indicators
The analysis of RLX TECH's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RLX TECH's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rlx stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Variance | 2.95 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for RLX TECH
The number of cover stories for RLX TECH depends on current market conditions and RLX TECH's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that RLX TECH is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about RLX TECH's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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RLX TECH Short Properties
RLX TECH's future price predictability will typically decrease when RLX TECH's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of RLX TECH SPADR1 often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential RLX TECH's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RLX TECH's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.401 | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.08 | |
| Shares Float | 447.9 M |
Other Information on Investing in RLX Stock
RLX TECH financial ratios help investors to determine whether RLX Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in RLX with respect to the benefits of owning RLX TECH security.