ALFORMER Industrial Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| 4558 Stock | TWD 44.75 0.30 0.67% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of ALFORMER Industrial Co on the next trading day is expected to be 43.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 200.96. ALFORMER Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
ALFORMER |
ALFORMER Industrial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of ALFORMER Industrial Co on the next trading day is expected to be 43.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.29, mean absolute percentage error of 15.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 200.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ALFORMER Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ALFORMER Industrial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ALFORMER Industrial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ALFORMER Industrial | ALFORMER Industrial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ALFORMER Industrial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ALFORMER Industrial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ALFORMER Industrial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.81 and 47.83, respectively. We have considered ALFORMER Industrial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ALFORMER Industrial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ALFORMER Industrial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.8799 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.2944 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 200.9589 |
Predictive Modules for ALFORMER Industrial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ALFORMER Industrial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for ALFORMER Industrial
For every potential investor in ALFORMER, whether a beginner or expert, ALFORMER Industrial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ALFORMER Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ALFORMER. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ALFORMER Industrial's price trends.ALFORMER Industrial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ALFORMER Industrial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ALFORMER Industrial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ALFORMER Industrial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ALFORMER Industrial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ALFORMER Industrial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ALFORMER Industrial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ALFORMER Industrial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ALFORMER Industrial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ALFORMER Industrial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ALFORMER Industrial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ALFORMER Industrial Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ALFORMER Industrial Risk Indicators
The analysis of ALFORMER Industrial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ALFORMER Industrial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alformer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.95 | |||
| Variance | 15.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.67 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with ALFORMER Industrial
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ALFORMER Industrial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ALFORMER Industrial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against ALFORMER Stock
| 0.77 | 2072 | Century Wind Power | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | 8942 | Xxentria Technology | PairCorr |
| 0.33 | 6175 | Liton Technology | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ALFORMER Industrial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ALFORMER Industrial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ALFORMER Industrial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ALFORMER Industrial Co to buy it.
The correlation of ALFORMER Industrial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ALFORMER Industrial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ALFORMER Industrial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ALFORMER Industrial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for ALFORMER Stock Analysis
When running ALFORMER Industrial's price analysis, check to measure ALFORMER Industrial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ALFORMER Industrial is operating at the current time. Most of ALFORMER Industrial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ALFORMER Industrial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ALFORMER Industrial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ALFORMER Industrial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.