Philip Morris Stock Forward View
| 4I1 Stock | 152.00 2.38 1.59% |
Philip Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Philip Morris' stock price is slightly above 64. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Philip, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Philip Morris hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Philip Morris International from the perspective of Philip Morris response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 151.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.82. Philip Morris after-hype prediction price | EUR 148.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Philip |
Philip Morris Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Philip price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Philip using various technical indicators. When you analyze Philip charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Philip Morris Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 151.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95, mean absolute percentage error of 5.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Philip Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Philip Morris' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Philip Morris Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Philip Morris | Philip Morris Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Philip Morris Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Philip Morris' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Philip Morris' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 150.20 and 153.37, respectively. We have considered Philip Morris' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Philip Morris stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Philip Morris stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8744 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9479 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0143 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 118.8219 |
Predictive Modules for Philip Morris
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Philip Morris Intern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Philip Morris' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Philip Morris After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Philip Morris at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Philip Morris or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Philip Morris, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Philip Morris Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Philip Morris' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Philip Morris' historical news coverage. Philip Morris' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 147.36 and 150.54, respectively. We have considered Philip Morris' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Philip Morris is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Philip Morris Intern is based on 3 months time horizon.
Philip Morris Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Philip Morris is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Philip Morris backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Philip Morris, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 1.58 | 0.75 | 0.06 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
152.00 | 148.95 | 0.45 |
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Philip Morris Hype Timeline
Philip Morris Intern is presently traded for 152.00on Stuttgart Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.75, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Philip is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 148.95. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 63.2%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.45%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Philip Morris is about 803.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 151.94. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.18. Philip Morris Intern had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Philip Morris to cross-verify your projections.Philip Morris Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Philip Morris' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Philip Morris' future price movements. Getting to know how Philip Morris' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Philip Morris may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DNN | Strategic Investments AS | 0.00 | 8 per month | 2.40 | 0.08 | 5.92 | (4.12) | 33.60 | |
| JAN | Japan Asia Investment | (0.05) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.65 | (3.91) | 7.46 | |
| 8PM | PennyMac Mortgage Investment | 0.19 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.61 | (1.95) | 15.34 | |
| MM3 | Merit Medical Systems | (1.50) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.42 | (2.70) | 17.04 | |
| 55O1 | Apollo Investment Corp | 0.1 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.07 | (2.15) | 6.31 | |
| COP | Compugroup Medical SE | 0.08 | 1 per month | 1.06 | 0.07 | 2.62 | (1.92) | 6.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Philip Morris
For every potential investor in Philip, whether a beginner or expert, Philip Morris' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Philip Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Philip. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Philip Morris' price trends.Philip Morris Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Philip Morris stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Philip Morris could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Philip Morris by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Philip Morris Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Philip Morris stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Philip Morris shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Philip Morris stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Philip Morris International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Philip Morris Risk Indicators
The analysis of Philip Morris' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Philip Morris' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting philip stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Variance | 2.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Philip Morris
The number of cover stories for Philip Morris depends on current market conditions and Philip Morris' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Philip Morris is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Philip Morris' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Philip Morris Short Properties
Philip Morris' future price predictability will typically decrease when Philip Morris' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Philip Morris International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Philip Morris' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Philip Morris' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Dividends Paid | -8.2 B |
Additional Tools for Philip Stock Analysis
When running Philip Morris' price analysis, check to measure Philip Morris' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Philip Morris is operating at the current time. Most of Philip Morris' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Philip Morris' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Philip Morris' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Philip Morris to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.