Graphic Packaging Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 4W8 Stock | EUR 10.25 0.05 0.49% |
Graphic Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Graphic Packaging's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 2nd of March 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Graphic Packaging's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 2
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | Wall Street Target Price 30 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.004 |
Using Graphic Packaging hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Graphic Packaging Holding from the perspective of Graphic Packaging response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graphic Packaging Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 10.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.31. Graphic Packaging after-hype prediction price | EUR 10.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Graphic |
Graphic Packaging Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Graphic price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Graphic using various technical indicators. When you analyze Graphic charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Graphic Packaging Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graphic Packaging Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 10.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Graphic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Graphic Packaging's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Graphic Packaging Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Graphic Packaging | Graphic Packaging Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Graphic Packaging Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Graphic Packaging's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Graphic Packaging's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.77 and 12.73, respectively. We have considered Graphic Packaging's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Graphic Packaging stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Graphic Packaging stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9094 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0612 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2218 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.31 |
Predictive Modules for Graphic Packaging
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graphic Packaging Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Graphic Packaging After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Graphic Packaging at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Graphic Packaging or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Graphic Packaging, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Graphic Packaging Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Graphic Packaging's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Graphic Packaging's historical news coverage. Graphic Packaging's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.75 and 12.71, respectively. We have considered Graphic Packaging's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Graphic Packaging is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Graphic Packaging Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Graphic Packaging Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Graphic Packaging is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Graphic Packaging backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Graphic Packaging, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 2.48 | 0.02 | 0.38 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.25 | 10.23 | 0.20 |
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Graphic Packaging Hype Timeline
Graphic Packaging Holding is presently traded for 10.25on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.38. Graphic is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.23. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.48%. The volatility of related hype on Graphic Packaging is about 310.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.87. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds. The company has Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.07. In the past many companies with similar price-to-book ratios have beat the market. Graphic Packaging Holding has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.7. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graphic Packaging to cross-verify your projections.Graphic Packaging Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Graphic Packaging's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Graphic Packaging's future price movements. Getting to know how Graphic Packaging's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Graphic Packaging may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RHO | ROCHE HLDG | (2.20) | 4 per month | 1.38 | 0.13 | 2.31 | (2.20) | 8.07 | |
| ABL | Abbott Laboratories | 3.76 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.95 | (1.76) | 14.56 | |
| DAP | DANAHER | (3.40) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.32 | (2.98) | 8.54 | |
| QCI | QUALCOMM | (5.46) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.90 | (2.57) | 12.93 | |
| 6MK | Merck Co | 0.10 | 6 per month | 1.41 | 0.15 | 2.96 | (2.35) | 8.41 | |
| NOT | NOVARTIS N | 1.18 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.34 | 2.10 | (1.01) | 4.95 | |
| NOT | NOVARTIS N | (1.35) | 1 per month | 0.25 | 0.27 | 2.70 | (1.29) | 5.41 | |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | (1.80) | 8 per month | 3.77 | (0.02) | 6.33 | (5.07) | 24.55 | |
| 4I1 | Philip Morris International | 1.16 | 4 per month | 1.21 | 0.12 | 2.65 | (2.55) | 7.67 | |
| W8V | BANK OF CHINA | 0.01 | 4 per month | 2.70 | (0.01) | 2.08 | (2.04) | 24.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Graphic Packaging
For every potential investor in Graphic, whether a beginner or expert, Graphic Packaging's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Graphic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Graphic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Graphic Packaging's price trends.Graphic Packaging Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Graphic Packaging stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Graphic Packaging could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Graphic Packaging by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Graphic Packaging Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Graphic Packaging stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Graphic Packaging shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Graphic Packaging stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Graphic Packaging Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Graphic Packaging Risk Indicators
The analysis of Graphic Packaging's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Graphic Packaging's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graphic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Variance | 5.84 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Graphic Packaging
The number of cover stories for Graphic Packaging depends on current market conditions and Graphic Packaging's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Graphic Packaging is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Graphic Packaging's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graphic Packaging to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.