Motorcar Parts Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 54M Stock | EUR 8.95 0.10 1.10% |
Motorcar Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Motorcar Parts' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 13th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Motorcar Parts' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.1) |
Using Motorcar Parts hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Motorcar Parts of from the perspective of Motorcar Parts response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Motorcar Parts of on the next trading day is expected to be 8.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.14. Motorcar Parts after-hype prediction price | EUR 9.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Motorcar |
Motorcar Parts Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Motorcar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Motorcar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Motorcar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Motorcar Parts Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Motorcar Parts of on the next trading day is expected to be 8.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Motorcar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Motorcar Parts' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Motorcar Parts Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Motorcar Parts | Motorcar Parts Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Motorcar Parts Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Motorcar Parts' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Motorcar Parts' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.53 and 12.37, respectively. We have considered Motorcar Parts' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Motorcar Parts stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Motorcar Parts stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2961 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0496 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2524 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0237 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.1419 |
Predictive Modules for Motorcar Parts
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Motorcar Parts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Motorcar Parts After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Motorcar Parts at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Motorcar Parts or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Motorcar Parts, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Motorcar Parts Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Motorcar Parts' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Motorcar Parts' historical news coverage. Motorcar Parts' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.59 and 12.43, respectively. We have considered Motorcar Parts' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Motorcar Parts is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Motorcar Parts is based on 3 months time horizon.
Motorcar Parts Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Motorcar Parts is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Motorcar Parts backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Motorcar Parts, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 3.42 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.95 | 9.01 | 0.67 |
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Motorcar Parts Hype Timeline
Motorcar Parts is presently traded for 8.95on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Motorcar is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.01 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.67%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Motorcar Parts is about 2472.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.99. The company reported the revenue of 757.35 M. Net Loss for the year was (19.47 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 148.02 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Motorcar Parts to cross-verify your projections.Motorcar Parts Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Motorcar Parts' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Motorcar Parts' future price movements. Getting to know how Motorcar Parts' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Motorcar Parts may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LWF | LIFEWAY FOODS | (0.40) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.14 | (2.91) | 11.50 | |
| 20V | National Beverage Corp | 1.20 | 9 per month | 1.44 | (0.02) | 2.86 | (2.74) | 8.96 | |
| 7SNU | Suntory Beverage Food | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.85 | 0.04 | 2.29 | (1.52) | 4.67 | |
| 0M7 | COFCO Joycome Foods | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.56 | (5.26) | 11.81 | |
| CHK | China Resources Beer | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.70 | (3.36) | 11.04 | |
| TF7A | TYSON FOODS A | 0.00 | 9 per month | 0.68 | 0.06 | 1.95 | (1.69) | 8.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Motorcar Parts
For every potential investor in Motorcar, whether a beginner or expert, Motorcar Parts' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Motorcar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Motorcar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Motorcar Parts' price trends.Motorcar Parts Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Motorcar Parts stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Motorcar Parts could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Motorcar Parts by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Motorcar Parts Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Motorcar Parts stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Motorcar Parts shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Motorcar Parts stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Motorcar Parts of entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.95 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.95 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) |
Motorcar Parts Risk Indicators
The analysis of Motorcar Parts' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Motorcar Parts' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting motorcar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.27 | |||
| Variance | 18.25 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Motorcar Parts
The number of cover stories for Motorcar Parts depends on current market conditions and Motorcar Parts' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Motorcar Parts is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Motorcar Parts' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Motorcar Parts to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.