Tonghua Grape Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| 600365 Stock | 2.59 0.01 0.38% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tonghua Grape Wine on the next trading day is expected to be 2.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.38. Tonghua Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Tonghua Grape stock prices and determine the direction of Tonghua Grape Wine's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Tonghua Grape's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Tonghua |
Tonghua Grape Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tonghua Grape Wine on the next trading day is expected to be 2.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tonghua Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tonghua Grape's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tonghua Grape Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tonghua Grape stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tonghua Grape stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0115 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0574 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.02 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.3837 |
Predictive Modules for Tonghua Grape
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tonghua Grape Wine. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tonghua Grape Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tonghua Grape stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tonghua Grape could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tonghua Grape by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tonghua Grape Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tonghua Grape stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tonghua Grape shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tonghua Grape stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tonghua Grape Wine entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Tonghua Grape Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tonghua Grape's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tonghua Grape's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tonghua stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Variance | 6.41 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Tonghua Stock
Tonghua Grape financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tonghua Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tonghua with respect to the benefits of owning Tonghua Grape security.