Oppein Home Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

603833 Stock   66.34  0.04  0.06%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oppein Home Group on the next trading day is expected to be 66.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 109.45. Oppein Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Oppein Home stock prices and determine the direction of Oppein Home Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Oppein Home's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Oppein Home's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Current Liabilities is expected to grow to about 13.8 B, whereas Other Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 596.8 M.
Triple exponential smoothing for Oppein Home - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Oppein Home prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Oppein Home price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Oppein Home Group.

Oppein Home Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oppein Home Group on the next trading day is expected to be 66.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86, mean absolute percentage error of 5.74, and the sum of the absolute errors of 109.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oppein Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oppein Home's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Oppein Home Stock Forecast Pattern

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Oppein Home Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Oppein Home's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oppein Home's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 62.36 and 70.36, respectively. We have considered Oppein Home's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
66.34
66.36
Expected Value
70.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oppein Home stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oppein Home stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1736
MADMean absolute deviation1.8552
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0321
SAESum of the absolute errors109.4548
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Oppein Home observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Oppein Home Group observations.

Predictive Modules for Oppein Home

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oppein Home Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
60.6664.6968.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
57.5461.5772.97
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Oppein Home. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Oppein Home's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Oppein Home's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Oppein Home Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Oppein Home

For every potential investor in Oppein, whether a beginner or expert, Oppein Home's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oppein Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oppein. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oppein Home's price trends.

Oppein Home Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oppein Home stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oppein Home could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oppein Home by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Oppein Home Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Oppein Home's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Oppein Home's current price.

Oppein Home Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oppein Home stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oppein Home shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oppein Home stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oppein Home Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Oppein Home Risk Indicators

The analysis of Oppein Home's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oppein Home's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oppein stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Oppein Stock

Oppein Home financial ratios help investors to determine whether Oppein Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Oppein with respect to the benefits of owning Oppein Home security.