Yeh Chiang Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

6124 Stock  TWD 28.20  0.85  3.11%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Yeh Chiang Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 28.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.76. Yeh Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Yeh Chiang is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Yeh Chiang Technology value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Yeh Chiang Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Yeh Chiang Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 28.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Yeh Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Yeh Chiang's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Yeh Chiang Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Yeh ChiangYeh Chiang Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Yeh Chiang Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Yeh Chiang's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Yeh Chiang's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.74 and 30.76, respectively. We have considered Yeh Chiang's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.20
28.75
Expected Value
30.76
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Yeh Chiang stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Yeh Chiang stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5627
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3993
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0158
SAESum of the absolute errors24.759
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Yeh Chiang Technology. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Yeh Chiang. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Yeh Chiang

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Yeh Chiang Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26.1928.2030.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.6522.6631.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
22.9225.2127.49
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Yeh Chiang

For every potential investor in Yeh, whether a beginner or expert, Yeh Chiang's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Yeh Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Yeh. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Yeh Chiang's price trends.

Yeh Chiang Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Yeh Chiang stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Yeh Chiang could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Yeh Chiang by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Yeh Chiang Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Yeh Chiang's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Yeh Chiang's current price.

Yeh Chiang Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Yeh Chiang stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Yeh Chiang shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Yeh Chiang stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Yeh Chiang Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Yeh Chiang Risk Indicators

The analysis of Yeh Chiang's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Yeh Chiang's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting yeh stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Yeh Chiang

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Yeh Chiang position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Yeh Chiang will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Yeh Stock

  0.652451 Transcend InformationPairCorr
  0.614950 Golden Win International SplitPairCorr
  0.483666 Optivision TechnologyPairCorr
  0.481434 Formosa TaffetaPairCorr
  0.472881A Fubon Financial HoldingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Yeh Chiang could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Yeh Chiang when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Yeh Chiang - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Yeh Chiang Technology to buy it.
The correlation of Yeh Chiang is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Yeh Chiang moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Yeh Chiang Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Yeh Chiang can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Yeh Stock Analysis

When running Yeh Chiang's price analysis, check to measure Yeh Chiang's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Yeh Chiang is operating at the current time. Most of Yeh Chiang's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Yeh Chiang's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Yeh Chiang's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Yeh Chiang to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.