Welldone Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

6170 Stock  TWD 50.00  1.30  2.53%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Welldone Co on the next trading day is expected to be 50.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.68. Welldone Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Welldone works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Welldone Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Welldone Co on the next trading day is expected to be 50.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Welldone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Welldone's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Welldone Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest WelldoneWelldone Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Welldone Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Welldone's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Welldone's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 48.65 and 51.45, respectively. We have considered Welldone's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
50.00
50.05
Expected Value
51.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Welldone stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Welldone stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1013
MADMean absolute deviation0.5031
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0105
SAESum of the absolute errors29.6815
When Welldone Co prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Welldone Co trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Welldone observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Welldone

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Welldone. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
48.6050.0051.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
39.5740.9755.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
48.1549.7951.43
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Welldone

For every potential investor in Welldone, whether a beginner or expert, Welldone's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Welldone Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Welldone. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Welldone's price trends.

Welldone Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Welldone stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Welldone could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Welldone by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Welldone Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Welldone's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Welldone's current price.

Welldone Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Welldone stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Welldone shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Welldone stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Welldone Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Welldone Risk Indicators

The analysis of Welldone's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Welldone's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting welldone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Welldone

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Welldone position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Welldone will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Welldone Stock

  0.76561 Chief TelecomPairCorr

Moving against Welldone Stock

  0.772327 Yageo CorpPairCorr
  0.762474 Catcher TechnologyPairCorr
  0.63008 LARGAN PrecisionPairCorr
  0.566163 Hwacom SystemsPairCorr
  0.414966 Parade TechnologiesPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Welldone could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Welldone when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Welldone - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Welldone Co to buy it.
The correlation of Welldone is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Welldone moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Welldone moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Welldone can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Welldone Stock Analysis

When running Welldone's price analysis, check to measure Welldone's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Welldone is operating at the current time. Most of Welldone's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Welldone's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Welldone's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Welldone to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.