Neith Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

6236 Stock  TWD 25.55  0.05  0.20%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Neith on the next trading day is expected to be 29.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.05. Neith Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Neith's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Neith's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Neith and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Neith's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Neith, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Neith hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Neith from the perspective of Neith response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Neith on the next trading day is expected to be 29.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.05.

Neith after-hype prediction price

    
  TWD 25.55  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Neith to cross-verify your projections.

Neith Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Neith price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Neith using various technical indicators. When you analyze Neith charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Neith is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Neith value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Neith Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Neith on the next trading day is expected to be 29.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 2.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Neith Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Neith's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Neith Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest NeithNeith Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Neith Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Neith's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Neith's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.07 and 33.79, respectively. We have considered Neith's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.55
29.93
Expected Value
33.79
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Neith stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Neith stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.8688
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0336
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0409
SAESum of the absolute errors63.0477
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Neith. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Neith. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Neith

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Neith. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.6925.5529.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.1421.0028.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.5225.5032.47
Details

Neith After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Neith at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Neith or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Neith, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Neith Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Neith's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Neith's historical news coverage. Neith's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.69 and 29.41, respectively. We have considered Neith's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
25.55
25.55
After-hype Price
29.41
Upside
Neith is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Neith is based on 3 months time horizon.

Neith Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Neith is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Neith backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Neith, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.03 
3.86
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
25.55
25.55
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Neith Hype Timeline

Neith is presently traded for 25.55on Taiwan OTC Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Neith is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Neith is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.55. The book value of the company was presently reported as 2.27. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.14. Neith had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had a split on the 12th of February 2008. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Neith to cross-verify your projections.

Neith Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Neith's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Neith's future price movements. Getting to know how Neith's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Neith may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Neith

For every potential investor in Neith, whether a beginner or expert, Neith's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Neith Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Neith. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Neith's price trends.

Neith Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Neith stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Neith could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Neith by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Neith Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Neith stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Neith shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Neith stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Neith entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Neith Risk Indicators

The analysis of Neith's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Neith's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting neith stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Neith

The number of cover stories for Neith depends on current market conditions and Neith's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Neith is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Neith's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Neith Short Properties

Neith's future price predictability will typically decrease when Neith's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Neith often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Neith's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Neith's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.79k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.82k

Additional Tools for Neith Stock Analysis

When running Neith's price analysis, check to measure Neith's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Neith is operating at the current time. Most of Neith's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Neith's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Neith's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Neith to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.