Sigurd Microelectronics Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 6257 Stock | TWD 212.50 1.50 0.71% |
Sigurd Microelectronics Corp's Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The forecast is recalculated with each session so it does not rely on stale inputs. A small Bias confirms the model is not systematically over- or under-predicting. The Simple Exponential Smoothing model projects Sigurd Microelectronics at 212.50 for the next trading day, at the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Sigurd Microelectronics at 212.50 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 4.43 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 266.00 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Sigurd Microelectronics' price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sigurd Microelectronics | Sigurd Microelectronics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for Sigurd Microelectronics frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The projected band runs from roughly 208.52 on the downside to about 216.48 on the upside. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Simple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Sigurd Microelectronics stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7884 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.45 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.4333 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0295 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 266.0 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sigurd Microelectronics
Bollinger Bands applied to Sigurd Stock price data measure how far Sigurd has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Sigurd Microelectronics' price data. On-balance volume for Sigurd Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in Sigurd. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for Sigurd Microelectronics'.Sigurd Microelectronics Related Equities
These stocks within the Information Technology space are often compared to Sigurd Microelectronics by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Profit comparisons show whether Sigurd Microelectronics earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Sigurd Microelectronics across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps. Tracking Sigurd Microelectronics' results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sigurd Microelectronics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Sigurd Microelectronics quantify how the stock responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Sigurd Microelectronics. The Market Facilitation Index measures how efficiently price moves relative to volume — rising MFI with rising volume signals strong trend participation. Monitoring these indicators for Sigurd Microelectronics through complete market cycles reveals recurring patterns.
Sigurd Microelectronics Risk Indicators
Analyzing Sigurd Microelectronics' risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in Sigurd Microelectronics helps place recent price behavior in context. These metrics are most informative when compared against similar equities with comparable growth profiles and market capitalization. When semi-deviation is high relative to standard deviation, Sigurd Microelectronics' losses have been disproportionately large compared to gains.
| Mean Deviation | 2.79 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Variance | 14.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.9 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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