Excelsior Biopharma Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 6496 Stock | TWD 28.30 0.10 0.35% |
Excelsior Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Excelsior Biopharma's share price is approaching 42. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Excelsior Biopharma, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Excelsior Biopharma hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Excelsior Biopharma from the perspective of Excelsior Biopharma response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Excelsior Biopharma on the next trading day is expected to be 27.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.73. Excelsior Biopharma after-hype prediction price | TWD 28.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Excelsior |
Excelsior Biopharma Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Excelsior price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Excelsior using various technical indicators. When you analyze Excelsior charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Excelsior Biopharma Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Excelsior Biopharma on the next trading day is expected to be 27.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Excelsior Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Excelsior Biopharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Excelsior Biopharma Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Excelsior Biopharma | Excelsior Biopharma Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Excelsior Biopharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Excelsior Biopharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Excelsior Biopharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.25 and 28.46, respectively. We have considered Excelsior Biopharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Excelsior Biopharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Excelsior Biopharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5409 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2376 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0081 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.7282 |
Predictive Modules for Excelsior Biopharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Excelsior Biopharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Excelsior Biopharma After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Excelsior Biopharma at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Excelsior Biopharma or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Excelsior Biopharma, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Excelsior Biopharma Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Excelsior Biopharma's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Excelsior Biopharma's historical news coverage. Excelsior Biopharma's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.20 and 29.40, respectively. We have considered Excelsior Biopharma's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Excelsior Biopharma is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Excelsior Biopharma is based on 3 months time horizon.
Excelsior Biopharma Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Excelsior Biopharma is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Excelsior Biopharma backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Excelsior Biopharma, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
28.30 | 28.30 | 0.00 |
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Excelsior Biopharma Hype Timeline
Excelsior Biopharma is presently traded for 28.30on Taiwan OTC Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Excelsior is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Excelsior Biopharma is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.30. About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company has Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.09. In the past many companies with similar price-to-book ratios have beat the market. Excelsior Biopharma recorded a loss per share of 0.63. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of July 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Excelsior Biopharma to cross-verify your projections.Excelsior Biopharma Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Excelsior Biopharma's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Excelsior Biopharma's future price movements. Getting to know how Excelsior Biopharma's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Excelsior Biopharma may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 6677 | Anxo Pharmaceutical Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.88 | (3.32) | 12.49 | |
| 6645 | Kim Forest Enterprise | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 3.12 | (3.77) | 9.89 | |
| 4194 | Holy Stone Healthcare | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 5.37 | (7.13) | 17.59 | |
| 4171 | GeneReach Biotechnology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.77 | 0.03 | 9.89 | (5.17) | 19.34 | |
| 4150 | Unicon Optical Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 1.76 | (2.91) | 11.57 | |
| 6539 | DV Biomed Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.75 | 0.04 | 4.22 | (3.45) | 11.11 | |
| 6827 | MegaPro Biomedical Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.82 | (3.10) | 13.47 | |
| 4127 | Tien Liang BioTech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.03 | 0.12 | 4.73 | (2.36) | 7.64 | |
| 6935 | Prince Pharmaceutical Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.90 | (4.57) | 11.38 | |
| 7427 | Great Novel Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.86 | 0.06 | 11.22 | (4.81) | 76.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Excelsior Biopharma
For every potential investor in Excelsior, whether a beginner or expert, Excelsior Biopharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Excelsior Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Excelsior. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Excelsior Biopharma's price trends.Excelsior Biopharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Excelsior Biopharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Excelsior Biopharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Excelsior Biopharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Excelsior Biopharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Excelsior Biopharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Excelsior Biopharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Excelsior Biopharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Excelsior Biopharma entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Excelsior Biopharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Excelsior Biopharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Excelsior Biopharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting excelsior stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7022 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Variance | 1.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Excelsior Biopharma
The number of cover stories for Excelsior Biopharma depends on current market conditions and Excelsior Biopharma's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Excelsior Biopharma is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Excelsior Biopharma's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Excelsior Stock Analysis
When running Excelsior Biopharma's price analysis, check to measure Excelsior Biopharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Excelsior Biopharma is operating at the current time. Most of Excelsior Biopharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Excelsior Biopharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Excelsior Biopharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Excelsior Biopharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.