Applied BioCode Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 6598 Stock | TWD 24.05 0.60 2.56% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied BioCode on the next trading day is expected to be 24.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.74. Applied Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Applied BioCode's share price is at 58. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Applied BioCode, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Applied BioCode hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applied BioCode from the perspective of Applied BioCode response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied BioCode on the next trading day is expected to be 24.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.74. Applied BioCode after-hype prediction price | TWD 24.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Applied |
Applied BioCode Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Applied BioCode Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied BioCode on the next trading day is expected to be 24.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied BioCode's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Applied BioCode Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applied BioCode | Applied BioCode Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Applied BioCode Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Applied BioCode's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied BioCode's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.62 and 25.87, respectively. We have considered Applied BioCode's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied BioCode stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied BioCode stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4376 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3564 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.7427 |
Predictive Modules for Applied BioCode
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied BioCode. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Applied BioCode After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Applied BioCode at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Applied BioCode or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Applied BioCode, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Applied BioCode Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Applied BioCode's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Applied BioCode's historical news coverage. Applied BioCode's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.42 and 25.68, respectively. We have considered Applied BioCode's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Applied BioCode is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Applied BioCode is based on 3 months time horizon.
Applied BioCode Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Applied BioCode is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applied BioCode backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applied BioCode, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.05 | 24.05 | 0.00 |
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Applied BioCode Hype Timeline
Applied BioCode is presently traded for 24.05on Taiwan Stock Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Applied is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Applied BioCode is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.05. About 43.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The book value of Applied BioCode was presently reported as 10.71. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.63. Applied BioCode had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied BioCode to cross-verify your projections.Applied BioCode Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Applied BioCode's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Applied BioCode's future price movements. Getting to know how Applied BioCode's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Applied BioCode may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 6861 | Innocare Optoelectronics Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.62 | (2.33) | 13.30 | |
| 4106 | Wellell | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.43 | (0) | 1.13 | (0.90) | 2.05 | |
| 6637 | Medical Imaging | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.65 | (1.61) | 6.46 | |
| 4132 | Golden Biotechnology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.64 | 0.11 | 12.15 | (6.05) | 45.53 | |
| 4168 | GlycoNex | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.93 | 0.1 | 7.23 | (2.70) | 18.02 | |
| 4155 | Ok Biotech Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.90 | (0.06) | 1.68 | (1.62) | 9.91 | |
| 4175 | MedFirst Healthcare Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.04 | (1.19) | 4.50 | |
| 9103 | Medtecs International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.18 | (1.67) | 6.57 | |
| 6815 | Diamond Biotechnology Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.22 | (4.43) | 15.62 | |
| 6676 | Sunny Pharmtech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.06 | 0.08 | 5.26 | (4.47) | 19.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Applied BioCode
For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied BioCode's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied BioCode's price trends.Applied BioCode Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied BioCode stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied BioCode could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied BioCode by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied BioCode Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied BioCode stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied BioCode shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied BioCode stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied BioCode entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Applied BioCode Risk Indicators
The analysis of Applied BioCode's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied BioCode's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.95 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Applied BioCode
The number of cover stories for Applied BioCode depends on current market conditions and Applied BioCode's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Applied BioCode is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Applied BioCode's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Applied Stock Analysis
When running Applied BioCode's price analysis, check to measure Applied BioCode's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied BioCode is operating at the current time. Most of Applied BioCode's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied BioCode's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied BioCode's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied BioCode to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.