AP Biosciences Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| 6945 Stock | 170.00 5.00 3.03% |
Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using AP Biosciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AP Biosciences from the perspective of AP Biosciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AP Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 170.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 234.25. AP Biosciences after-hype prediction price | TWD 170.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
6945 |
AP Biosciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine 6945 price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for 6945 using various technical indicators. When you analyze 6945 charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
AP Biosciences Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AP Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 170.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.33, mean absolute percentage error of 72.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 234.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 6945 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AP Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AP Biosciences Stock Forecast Pattern
AP Biosciences Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AP Biosciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AP Biosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 165.91 and 174.09, respectively. We have considered AP Biosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AP Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AP Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 78.2811 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.6284 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.3311 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0377 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 234.25 |
Predictive Modules for AP Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AP Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AP Biosciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility
As far as predicting the price of AP Biosciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AP Biosciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AP Biosciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AP Biosciences Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AP Biosciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AP Biosciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AP Biosciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.84 | 4.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
170.00 | 170.00 | 0.00 |
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AP Biosciences Hype Timeline
AP Biosciences is presently traded for 170.00on Taiwan OTC Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. 6945 is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.84%. %. The volatility of related hype on AP Biosciences is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 170.00. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.AP Biosciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AP Biosciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AP Biosciences' future price movements. Getting to know how AP Biosciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AP Biosciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 6564 | Enimmune corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.34 | 0.01 | 4.78 | (2.33) | 9.31 | |
| 4171 | GeneReach Biotechnology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.64 | 0.08 | 9.89 | (5.17) | 19.35 | |
| 4133 | Abnova Taiwan Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.19 | (1.67) | 5.77 | |
| 6814 | Lukas Biomedical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.51 | (0.03) | 3.68 | (3.23) | 8.01 | |
| 6850 | BiOptic | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.66 | (3.53) | 13.87 | |
| 6810 | Bio Preventive Medicine | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.98 | (3.91) | 14.93 | |
| 4724 | Meribank Biotech Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.26 | (3.72) | 14.75 | |
| 7725 | LabTurbo Biotech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.17 | 0.01 | 3.43 | (4.67) | 10.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for AP Biosciences
For every potential investor in 6945, whether a beginner or expert, AP Biosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 6945 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 6945. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AP Biosciences' price trends.AP Biosciences Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AP Biosciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AP Biosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AP Biosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AP Biosciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AP Biosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AP Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AP Biosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AP Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 14490.39 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6667 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 168.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 168.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 4.25 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 5.0 |
AP Biosciences Risk Indicators
The analysis of AP Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AP Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 6945 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.09 | |||
| Variance | 16.71 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AP Biosciences
The number of cover stories for AP Biosciences depends on current market conditions and AP Biosciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AP Biosciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AP Biosciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for 6945 Stock Analysis
When running AP Biosciences' price analysis, check to measure AP Biosciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AP Biosciences is operating at the current time. Most of AP Biosciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AP Biosciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AP Biosciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AP Biosciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.