Bioray Biotech Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 7561 Stock | TWD 26.00 1.00 4.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bioray Biotech Co on the next trading day is expected to be 27.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.26. Bioray Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Bioray Biotech's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Bioray Biotech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bioray Biotech Co from the perspective of Bioray Biotech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bioray Biotech Co on the next trading day is expected to be 27.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.26. Bioray Biotech after-hype prediction price | TWD 26.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Bioray |
Bioray Biotech Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bioray price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bioray using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bioray charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Bioray Biotech Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bioray Biotech Co on the next trading day is expected to be 27.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bioray Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bioray Biotech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bioray Biotech Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bioray Biotech | Bioray Biotech Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bioray Biotech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bioray Biotech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bioray Biotech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.35 and 31.10, respectively. We have considered Bioray Biotech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bioray Biotech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bioray Biotech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 74.5901 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4015 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0184 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.2573 |
Predictive Modules for Bioray Biotech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bioray Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bioray Biotech After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bioray Biotech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bioray Biotech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bioray Biotech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bioray Biotech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bioray Biotech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bioray Biotech's historical news coverage. Bioray Biotech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.63 and 29.37, respectively. We have considered Bioray Biotech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bioray Biotech is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bioray Biotech is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bioray Biotech Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bioray Biotech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bioray Biotech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bioray Biotech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.65 | 3.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
26.00 | 26.00 | 0.00 |
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Bioray Biotech Hype Timeline
Bioray Biotech is presently traded for 26.00on Taiwan OTC Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Bioray is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.65%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bioray Biotech is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.00. The book value of the company was presently reported as 13.99. The company last dividend was issued on the 30th of July 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bioray Biotech to cross-verify your projections.Bioray Biotech Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bioray Biotech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bioray Biotech's future price movements. Getting to know how Bioray Biotech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bioray Biotech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 7595 | Pharmigene | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.43 | (3.82) | 7.09 | |
| 6483 | Original BioMedicals Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.53 | (0.01) | 6.29 | (4.15) | 20.34 | |
| 4170 | 4170 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.28 | 0.04 | 4.44 | (3.62) | 12.49 | |
| 6615 | Sofiva Genomics CoLtd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.28 | (2.54) | 7.08 | |
| 6549 | TaiwanJ Pharmaceuticals Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.04 | 4.07 | (2.74) | 7.70 | |
| 8409 | EBM Technologies Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.28 | (3.15) | 8.16 | |
| 6662 | BioLASCO Taiwan Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.14 | (1.75) | 5.46 | |
| 6621 | UniPharma Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.35 | 0.08 | 3.13 | (2.02) | 9.14 | |
| 6939 | TFBS Bioscience | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.70 | (4.29) | 32.88 | |
| 6518 | Concord Medical Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.17 | (0.06) | 2.55 | (2.59) | 8.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bioray Biotech
For every potential investor in Bioray, whether a beginner or expert, Bioray Biotech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bioray Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bioray. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bioray Biotech's price trends.Bioray Biotech Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bioray Biotech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bioray Biotech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bioray Biotech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bioray Biotech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bioray Biotech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bioray Biotech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bioray Biotech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bioray Biotech Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.04 | |||
| Day Median Price | 26.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 26.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.5 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.0 |
Bioray Biotech Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bioray Biotech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bioray Biotech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bioray stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.37 | |||
| Variance | 11.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bioray Biotech
The number of cover stories for Bioray Biotech depends on current market conditions and Bioray Biotech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bioray Biotech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bioray Biotech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bioray Biotech Short Properties
Bioray Biotech's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bioray Biotech's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bioray Biotech Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bioray Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bioray Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.30 | |
| Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day | 9.22k | |
| Average Daily Volume In Three Month | 30.17k | |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 1.07% |
Additional Tools for Bioray Stock Analysis
When running Bioray Biotech's price analysis, check to measure Bioray Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bioray Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Bioray Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bioray Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bioray Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bioray Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.