Avanos Medical Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

8HH Stock  EUR 12.80  0.10  0.79%   
Avanos Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Avanos Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Avanos Medical's stock price is roughly 69. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 22nd of February 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Avanos, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 69

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Avanos Medical's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Avanos Medical and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Avanos Medical's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Avanos Medical, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Avanos Medical's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
Wall Street Target Price
43
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.043
Using Avanos Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Avanos Medical from the perspective of Avanos Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Avanos Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 12.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.40.

Avanos Medical after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 13.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avanos Medical to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Avanos Stock please use our How to Invest in Avanos Medical guide.

Avanos Medical Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Avanos price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Avanos using various technical indicators. When you analyze Avanos charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Avanos Medical simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Avanos Medical are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Avanos Medical prices get older.

Avanos Medical Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Avanos Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 12.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avanos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avanos Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Avanos Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Avanos Medical  Avanos Medical Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Avanos Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Avanos Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avanos Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.62 and 14.98, respectively. We have considered Avanos Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.80
12.80
Expected Value
14.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avanos Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avanos Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.3843
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.05
MADMean absolute deviation0.1733
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0162
SAESum of the absolute errors10.4
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Avanos Medical forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Avanos Medical observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Avanos Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avanos Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.8513.0315.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.0014.1816.36
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
6.6312.4418.25
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.280.310.36
Details

Avanos Medical After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Avanos Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Avanos Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Avanos Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Avanos Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Avanos Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Avanos Medical's historical news coverage. Avanos Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.85 and 15.21, respectively. We have considered Avanos Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.80
13.03
After-hype Price
15.21
Upside
Avanos Medical is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Avanos Medical is based on 3 months time horizon.

Avanos Medical Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Avanos Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Avanos Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Avanos Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.46 
2.18
  0.23 
  0.04 
7 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.80
13.03
1.80 
436.00  
Notes

Avanos Medical Hype Timeline

Avanos Medical is presently traded for 12.80on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Avanos is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 13.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 1.8%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Avanos Medical is about 2491.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.76. The company reported the revenue of 687.8 M. Net Loss for the year was (392.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 365.9 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avanos Medical to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Avanos Stock please use our How to Invest in Avanos Medical guide.

Avanos Medical Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Avanos Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Avanos Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Avanos Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Avanos Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SPT6Beta Systems Software 0.00 6 per month 2.23  0.14  8.00 (4.50) 24.50 
16UUpland Software(0.02)6 per month 0.00 (0.25) 4.76 (7.30) 19.08 
MGKMAGIC SOFTWARE ENTR 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 4.86 (5.45) 25.79 
SIA1Singapore Airlines Limited(0.08)5 per month 1.15  0.01  1.93 (1.89) 6.23 
SWNSOUTHWEST AIRLINES 0.33 8 per month 1.62  0.22  6.85 (3.56) 15.29 
SWNSouthwest Airlines Co(0.94)10 per month 1.60  0.23  5.45 (3.03) 17.16 
CIAHChina Eastern Airlines 0.01 4 per month 2.47  0.12  6.38 (4.84) 17.26 
A9FAlfa Financial Software 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 1.98 (2.52) 9.19 

Other Forecasting Options for Avanos Medical

For every potential investor in Avanos, whether a beginner or expert, Avanos Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avanos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avanos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avanos Medical's price trends.

Avanos Medical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Avanos Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Avanos Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avanos Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Avanos Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avanos Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avanos Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avanos Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Avanos Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Avanos Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Avanos Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avanos Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avanos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Avanos Medical

The number of cover stories for Avanos Medical depends on current market conditions and Avanos Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Avanos Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Avanos Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
When determining whether Avanos Medical is a strong investment it is important to analyze Avanos Medical's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Avanos Medical's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Avanos Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avanos Medical to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Avanos Stock please use our How to Invest in Avanos Medical guide.
You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Understanding that Avanos Medical's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Avanos Medical represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Avanos Medical's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.